- Portugal (-250) is predicted to win Group K at the 2026 World Cup.
- Colombia, finalists at the 2024 Copa America, is +250 to win Group K.
- I predict Portugal (-250) wins Group K due to Colombia’s inconsistent record.
Below, bettors can find World Cup odds for the Group K winner.
Most Likely to Win Group K at 2026 FIFA World Cup
Portugal (-250) is predicted to win Group K at the World Cup. At that price, the Cristiano Ronaldo-led side has a 71.4% implied probability of coming through as group winners.
Colombia (+250), which reached the 2024 Copa America final, is priced as the closest challenger. The South American side possesses a 28.6% implied probability to win Group K.
Group K World Cup 2026 Odds
Group K World Cup 2026 Prediction
Based on Colombia’s inconsistent qualifying record and recent results against European opposition, I predict Portugal (-250) wins Group K.
This group lacks an actionable opinion in my estimation. I don’t trust Portugal enough to lay this big a price, but I simultaneously distrust Colombia enough to take on Portugal.
Had we seen these teams drawn in different groups, my opinion might have changed.
The pricing leads me to consider Colombia, but you’re banking on the team discovering long-lost form.
Manager Nestor Cortez led Colombia to a 28-match unbeaten run at the start of his tenure. That included a run to the Copa America final, where Colombia fell to Argentina in extra time.
During the run, Colombia bested Brazil by a healthy margin. While their group match finished 1-1, Colombia won the expected goals battle 1.45 to 0.3.
Post-shot xG rated it a closer match – 0.91 to 0.79 – but the edge remained for Colombia.
Since the Copa America final, the South American side has struggled to find consistency.
Is this the team that beat Argentina on home soil or lost outright at Bolivia? The answer likely dictates their World Cup outlook.
Plus, we saw Colombia take on two UEFA sides in March friendlies. Cortez’s side lost both matches against Croatia and France, conceding multiple goals in both.
The results lead me to question Colombia’s viability as an underdog against Portugal. Plus, the 2016 European champions look like the model of consistency under Roberto Martinez.
Through 28 games with Martinez, Portugal posted a 28-4-6 (W-D-L) record. Since the start of 2025, Portugal has dropped all three points only twice in 12 matches.
While it’s possible to create against Portugal’s defense, Colombia’s volatility renders it an untrustworthy underdog.
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