If you’re someone who values historical betting trends, signals exist to help identify the World Cup winner.
Argentina proved in 2022 that lead-in form played a big role in deciding the tournament winner. While World Cup sleeper picks are capable of deep runs, favorites generally win.
From a statistical standpoint, bettors should look for teams capable of playing exceptional defense. Those teams that limit scoring chances often enjoy deeper runs than prolific attacks.
Here’s a look at a few World Cup betting trends based on World Cup odds.
3 World Cup Betting Trends for Predicting Tournament Winner
Focus on the Shortest Shots to Win
Every winner since the 2002 FIFA World Cup closed at +1200 or shorter to win their respective tournament.
In 2018, France came through as the biggest price (+1200). In 2022, Argentina closed at +550 to win the World Cup as the second-shortest price.
One could also view France’s 2018 performance as an outlier. Since 1982, only two teams have closed north of +1000 to win the tournament.
Italy won the 1982 World Cup as an 18-to-1 shot. France ended a long reign of teams priced inside +1000.
Lead-in Form Matters
Historical trends say teams are unlikely to win the World Cup via poor lead-in form.
Dating back to 2002, no team has lost two or more matches in their last five fixtures and won the World Cup. France came close in 2022, but fell in the final to Argentina.
Three of the last six winners earned at least four wins in their five lead-in matches. Those qualifiers: Brazil (2002), Spain (2010) and Argentina (2022).
Italy finished unbeaten in 2006, posting two wins and three draws. In 2014, Germany recorded three wins and two draws.
That leaves France as the only winner this century to lose one of their five matches leading into the World Cup.
Recent Euro/Copa America Form Offers a Hint
Is success at the prior continental tournament indicative of success at the next World Cup? In a small sample size, the answer is probably.
Argentina won the 2022 World Cup after winning the prior Copa America. France won in 2018 after reaching the 2016 European Championship Final.
Spain went back-to-back at the 2008 Euros & 2010 World Cup. In between Spain and France, Germany proved a semi-outlier by faltering in the semifinals.
Before that spell, however, it was not a requirement.
Italy fell in the group stage of the 2004 Euros before winning in 2006, while Brazil (2002) and France (1998) failed to reach the previous final.
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