Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo Fight Card, Odds, & Predictions

min read
Undisputed super middleweight world champion Canelo Álvarez, left, of Mexico, and undisputed junior middleweight world champion Jermell Charlo.
(AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)
Anatoly Pimentel @AnatolyPimentel Oct 26, 2023, 10:46 PM
  • The third defense of Canelo Alvarez's super middleweight titles will be against Jermell Charlo this weekend.
  • Canelo Alvarez is the betting favorite at -350.
  • Jermell Charlo is the betting underdog at +275.

A champion-versus-champion world title boxing showdown goes down inside the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, as it hosts the third title defense of Canelo Alvarez’s (59-2-2) undisputed super middleweight crown this Saturday, Sept. 30, 2023, against challenger and reigning undisputed junior middleweight world champion Jermell Charlo (35-1-1). Because of his unbeaten run in the division, Alvarez will be the betting favorite in boxing odds at -350.

Meanwhile, Charlo is tagged as the betting underdog at +275 because despite being an undisputed world champion himself, his natural weight class is two divisions lower compared to this upcoming fight with the Mexican superstar. Additionally, Alvarez is expected to cruise past Charlo with a win because he is eager to avenge his loss to Dmitry Bivol after receiving a unanimous decision loss in their first meeting in May 2022.

Canelo Alvarez Recent Fight Results

Canelo Alvarez is among the best pound-for-pound boxers today, with world titles across four divisions. He holds a professional record of 59 wins (with 39 TKO/KOs), two losses, and two draws. Alvarez’s two losses were from Floyd Mayweather Jr. in September 2013 and Bivol in May 2022, while his two draws were with Jorge Juarez in June 2006 and Gennady Golovkin in September 2017.

The 33-year-old Mexican superstar unified all the belts in the super middleweight division in November 2021. After achieving this status, he briefly moved up in the light heavyweight division to challenge Bivol for his WBA world title but came up short, as he was defeated via unanimous decision. Alvarez has since defended his undisputed crown twice against Golovkin and John Ryder.

Jermell Charlo Recent Fight Results

Jermell Charlo became a world champion in May 2016 after winning the vacant WBC World Junior Middleweight title against John Jackson via eighth-round knockout. The “Iron Man” defended this title against Erickson Lubin and Austin Trout before Tony Harrison dethroned him in December 2018 with a unanimous decision defeat. Charlo bounced back against Jorge Cota in June 2019 to earn a title rematch with Harrison.

Charlo and Harrison fought for the second time in December 2019, and the former made sure to avenge his loss against the latter with an 11th-round knockout finish. Charlo added the IBF and WBA titles in his next fight by beating Jeison Rosario in September 2020. The 33-year-old Texas resident went for the undisputed status by fighting Brian Carlos Castano, but their first fight ended in a split draw. In May 2022, Charlo finally attained this status by knocking out Castano in their rematch.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo: Tale of the Tape

Canelo AlvarezJermell Charlo
Reach71 inches73 inches
TKO/KO Percentage62%49%

Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo: Fight Analysis

The tale of the tape between Canelo Alvarez and Jermell Charlo gives the latter four inches of height and two inches of reach advantages against the former. However, Alvarez will be fighting in his natural weight class at 168 pounds, while Charlo will add a significant amount of weight, as he moves up two divisions higher from his division of 154 pounds. The Mexican superstar also has a better TKO/KO percentage of 62% compared to Charlo’s 49%.

This fight is an exciting matchup of styles, as Alvarez uses a forward-pressure approach that is heavy on counterpunches and setting traps to his power punches on the head and body. Meanwhile, Charlo likes to utilize this lead hand to throw jabs and set up his signature 1-2 combination that scores him points on the judges’ scorecards and even puts his opponents down on the mat.

The defending champion uses his incredibly coordinated footwork and head movement to evade the punches his opponents are throwing at him and slips away from them to throw a lethal counterpunch either to the head or the body, which often disorients them. If there is no activity from his opposition, Alvarez forces them to the ropes before firing a powerful combination.

Charlo, on the other hand, outworks his opponents with the volume of punches he throws, especially with the aforementioned lead hand that not only primes him to throw the 1-2 combination but also maintains his distance from his range and keeps his tempo going by dictating the flow of the fight. Additionally, he has a slight speed advantage against Alvarez because he comes from a lighter weight class.

That lighter weight class also comes with a massive risk because even if Charlo outworks Alvarez in the early stages of the fight, especially in the first three rounds, he might eventually succumb to the pressure that the defending champion will apply once he adjusts and finds the proper range for his punches. This is what Alvarez did in his previous fight with Ryder, where he neutralized the pressure of the British star by landing heavy blows.

Lastly, the one major question for this upcoming fight is whether Charlo can take the punch of Alvarez, who is naturally 14 pounds heavier than him. Add the fact that Alvarez has fought and knocked out a light heavyweight fighter, Sergey Kovalev; it will be a daunting task for the undisputed junior middleweight champion to score a massive upset against one of the best pound-for-pound boxers in history.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo: Date and Start Time

September 30, 2023, 5:00 p.m. PT

September 30, 2023, 7:00 p.m. CT

September 30, 2023, 8:00 p.m. ET

Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo: Fight Prediction

Official Prediction: TKO/KO victory for Canelo Alvarez.

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About the Author

Anatoly Pimentel

Read More @AnatolyPimentel

Anatoly Pimentel is an NBA and MMA writer previously featured in ASEAN Sports, Asian Persuasion MMA, and Overtime Heroics MMA. He graduated from Adamson University with a B.A in Communication and is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM.

Anatoly Pimentel is an NBA and MMA writer previously featured in ASEAN Sports, Asian Persuasion MMA, and Overtime Heroics MMA. He graduated from Adamson University with a B.A in Communication and is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM.