- Borussia Dortmund is a 0.5 goal favorite vs. Newcastle United.
- Dortmund earned a 1-0 road win in the Matchday 3 fixture against Newcastle.
- Injury crisis for Newcastle United could limit squad rotation.
Before Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League fixture, I’m set to provide a Borussia Dortmund vs. Newcastle United prediction.
Hosts Dortmund captured a critical win on Matchday 3, eclipsing Newcastle 1-0 as +400 road underdogs.
Now the teams meet again, with Signal Iduna Park the venue for their Group F match. Currently, both teams sit on four points, with Dortmund ahead thanks to their head-to-head win.
Here’s how the Champions League odds shape up for Tuesday’s match.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Newcastle United Odds
- Borussia Dortmund to Win: +155
- Newcastle United to Win: +160
- Newcastle United vs. Borussia Dortmund Draw: +260
- The Borussia Dortmund vs. Newcastle United Over/Under is 2.5 Goals.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Newcastle United Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs. Newcastle United is Borussia Dortmund Draw, No Bet (-120).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
Wait until lineups drop one hour before kickoff to place this wager.
If my suspicions are correct, Newcastle could start a squad devoid of some key personnel that would hamper their chances in Germany.
Sven Botman, Dan Burn, Alexander Isak and Sandro Tonali could all be unavailable for Tuesday’s clash. If the former three aren’t available, I’ll be Dortmund.
Newcastle appear to be a trendy road underdog based on their desperation, but let’s not forget Dortmund bossed them at St. James’ Park.
In their 1-0 win, Dortmund captured a 1.8-1.08 win on expected goals along with a 1.7-0.98 win on post-shot expected goals, per fotmob.com.
Reposting this from last season’s Champions League. R3 and R4 of the group-stages, match-ups are the same.
You’ll notice from the previous 2 seasons, a lot of matches followed a similar ‘script’.
I’m tagging last season’s R3/R4 results below in this thread. Sometimes easy to… https://t.co/ATOfRShzgj
— Punter Phil (@punter_phil) November 6, 2023
For Newcastle, that’s a sizable gap to make up away from home without key personnel.
Plus, the odds for this match tell me Dortmund will do no worse than a draw.
Both Teams to Score – “Yes” is priced at -165, with over 2.5 goals sitting at -145.
However, both team totals are juiced to under 1.5 goals – Dortmund is -160, Newcastle is -165.
As a result, I’ll take the Dortmund draw, no bet line at -130 or better on Tuesday.
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