- PSG is predicted to be a 0.5-goal neutral site favorite against Arsenal.
- PSG won both meetings against Arsenal in last year’s UCL semifinals.
- My PSG vs Arsenal prediction is the Total Under 2.5 Goals (-135).
The club soccer season closes on Saturday with the Champions League Final: PSG vs. Arsenal.
PSG will go for its second straight UCL crown after throttling Inter Milan last year. En route to the final, the French outfit dispatched Chelsea, Liverpool and Bayern Munich.
Arsenal enjoyed a much easier path to the Champions League Final. The Premier League champions beat Sporting CP, Bayer Leverkusen and Atletico Madrid to reach this stage.
Check out the Champions League odds and my PSG vs Arsenal prediction.
PSG vs Arsenal: Champions League Final Odds
Arsenal vs PSG Prediction
Based on Arsenal’s strong defensive record and Mikel Arteta’s safe tactics in big matches, my PSG vs Arsenal prediction is the Total Under 2.5 Goals (-135).
When these clubs met in last year’s semifinal, chances flowed at both ends of the pitch.
In the first leg at the Emirates, Arsenal lost 1-0. However, the teams combined for 2.8 expected goals, 2.27 post-shot xG and five big scoring chances.
The second leg – a 2-1 PSG win – played way more open. PSG saw a penalty kick saved while creating 1.74 xG, 3.56 post-shot xG and two big scoring chances.
Arsenal ran particularly unlucky, but it came in a situation where they had to go for it. Arteta’s side generated 2.9 expected goals, 1.86 post-shot xG and four big chances.
The difference for this match is the Arsenal defense. Going from Jakub Kiwior and Myles Lewis-Skelly to Riccardo Califiori and Gabriel offers a massive upgrade.
It should lead to fewer chances for PSG’s attack against a significantly better defense.
Arsenal rate out better than all of PSG’s knockout round opponents, including fellow EPL sides Liverpool and Chelsea.
I left the Bayern-PSG semifinal impressed by PSG’s defense.
Over two legs against one of Europe’s best attacks, PSG surrendered 1.99 and 1.22 post-shot xG from open play. Now there’s time to prepare for an inferior attack to Bayern Munich.
Add in the extra rest for PSG’s defense — they last played on May 17 – and I predict a low-scoring final between these clubs.
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