Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

• The Coastal Carolina are a -1 point favorite vs. the Arkansas State Red Wolves
• Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
• TV Channel: ESPN+

Arkansas State (4-5) visit Brooks Stadium to take on Coastal Carolina (3-6) on Nov. 14 in Conway, SC. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 pm.

The Coastal Carolina are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -1 (-110).

The Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina Over/Under is 50.5 total points.

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Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Coastal Carolina will win this game with 50.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Arkansas State Red Wolves and the Coastal Carolina, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Coastal Carolina will cover the spread with 50.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Arkansas State Best Bets Today

• Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 5 away games (+5.20 Units / 93% ROI)
• Arkansas State have covered the 1H Spread in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 86% ROI)
• Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+3.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• Arkansas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+2.95 Units / 3% ROI)
• Arkansas State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.48 Units / 11% ROI)

Coastal Carolina Best Bets Today

• Coastal Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 89% ROI)
• Coastal Carolina have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.25 Units / 15% ROI)
• Coastal Carolina has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.95 Units / 28% ROI)
• Coastal Carolina has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
• Coastal Carolina has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.60 Units / 21% ROI)

Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Arkansas State Red Wolves is 4-5 against the spread this college football season (-1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI).

• Arkansas State is 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.45 Units / -11.1% ROI
• Arkansas State is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.52 Units / -15.32% ROI
• Arkansas State is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.07% ROI

Coastal Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Coastal Carolina is 4-5 against the spread this college football season (-1.58 Units / -15.83% ROI).

• Coastal Carolina is 2-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.42 Units / -46.19% ROI
• Coastal Carolina is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.08% ROI
• Coastal Carolina is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.65 Units / 6.6% ROI

Arkansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Coastal Carolina

Arkansas State was 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 3 sacks last season– T-7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .583

Arkansas State is 8-5 (.615) when in a one score game since the 2024 season– T-12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .491

Arkansas State was 7-5 (.583) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– 35th-best in FBS; Average: .429

Arkansas State was 7-5 (.583) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– 13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .388

Coastal Carolina: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas State

Coastal Carolina was winless (0-3) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .460

Coastal Carolina is 2-8 (.200) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2024 season– T-10th-worst in FBS; Average: .537

Coastal Carolina is winless (0-5) when making less than 7 explosive plays since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .327

Coastal Carolina was winless (0-3) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .424

Matchup Notes for Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina

Coastal Carolina’s offense threw for 2,204 passing yards in 13 games (just 169.5 YPG) last season — 21st-worst among FBS offenses. Arkansas State’s defense allowed 244.9 passing yards per game last season — 24th-worst among FBS defenses.

Coastal Carolina’s QBs threw for 2,046 passing yards in 13 games (just 157.4 YPG) last season — 15th-worst among FBS teams. Arkansas State’s defense allowed 244.9 passing yards per game last season — 24th-worst among FBS defenses.

Coastal Carolina had just 169.0 receiving yards per game last season — 21st-worst among FBS skill players. Arkansas State’s defense allowed 244.9 receiving yards per game last season — 24th-worst among FBS defenses.

Arkansas State’s WRs averaged 27.2 targets per game last season — 7th-highest among FBS WRs. Coastal Carolina’s defense allowed 13.8 receptions per game to WRs last season — T-24th-worst among FBS defenses.

Arkansas State’s WRs had 218 receptions in 13 games (16.8 per game) last season — 9th-best among FBS WRs. Coastal Carolina’s defense allowed 13.8 receptions per game to WRs last season — T-24th-worst among FBS defenses.

Arkansas State’s RBs rushed for 1,179 yards on 267 carries (just 4.4 YPC) last season — T-23rd-worst among FBS RBs. Coastal Carolina’s defense allowed 5.1 YPC last season — T-11th-worst among FBS defenses.

Arkansas State Offensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas State RBs had 11 receptions in the Red Zone last season– most among FBS Teams

Arkansas State TEs averaged just 7.0 yards per reception (302 yards/43 catches) last season– T-5th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 11.1

Arkansas State QBs rushed for 75 yards on 1st down last week– 3rd-most among FBS Teams

Arkansas State WRs have no touchdowns on 15 receptions in close and late situations this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.7

Arkansas State RBs have averaged 97.8 rushing yards per game (880/9) this season– T-28th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 126.4

Coastal Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends

Coastal Carolina did not score on any of their 6 drives in the 2nd half last week– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 26%

Coastal Carolina’s offense threw for 2,204 passing yards in 13 games (just 169.5 YPG) last season — 21st-worst among FBS offenses. Arkansas State’s defense allowed 244.9 passing yards per game last season — 24th-worst among FBS defenses.

Coastal Carolina fumbled 5 times last week– T-most among FBS Offenses

Coastal Carolina threw 0 TDs on 40 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) last week– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.7

Coastal Carolina RBs have fumbled 11 times since the 2024 season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams

Arkansas State Defensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 30 of 346 rushing attempts (9% TFL%) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

Arkansas State has allowed a Completion Pct of 71% (32 completions/45 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– worst in FBS; Average: 54%

Arkansas State allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 94 of 483 carries (20%) last season– worst in FBS; Average: 13%

Arkansas State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 30 of 346 rushing attempts (9% TFL%) this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.

Arkansas State allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 9 of 23 carries (39%) on 3rd and long last season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 18%

Coastal Carolina Defensive Stats & Trends

Coastal Carolina has allowed 6 TD passes in close and late situations this season– T-most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Coastal Carolina had no interceptions (0 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 30.3

Coastal Carolina has forced 28 fumbles since the 2024 season– 3rd-most in FBS

Coastal Carolina has allowed 6 TD passes in close and late situations this season– T-most in FBS

Coastal Carolina had no interceptions (0 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 38.1

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