- The Liberty Flames are a -14.5 point favorite vs. the Ball State Cardinals
- Ball State vs. Liberty Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
Ball State (1-1) visit Williams Stadium to take on Liberty (1-1) on Sep. 19 in Lynchburg, VA. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00 pm.
The Liberty Flames are betting favorites in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-105).
The Ball State vs. Liberty Over/Under is 49.5 total points.
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Ball State vs. Liberty Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Ball State | +14.5 -112 | 49.5 -108 | +475 |
| Liberty | -14.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | -625 |
Ball State vs Liberty Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Liberty will win this game with 76.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Ball State Cardinals and the Liberty Flames, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Ball State vs Liberty Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Liberty will cover the spread with 66.1% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Liberty Flames vs Ball State Cardinals and all games with BetMGM
Ball State Best Bets Today
- Ball State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.65 Units / 38% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 10 games (+1.65 Units / 11% ROI)
Liberty Best Bets Today
- Liberty have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 6 games at home (+6.30 Units / 85% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- Liberty have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.55 Units / 20% ROI)
Ball State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Ball State Cardinals is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Ball State is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 18.18% ROI
- Ball State is 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Ball State is 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
Liberty Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Liberty Flames is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).
- Liberty is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Liberty is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.25 Units / -100% ROI
- Liberty is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 93.02% ROI
Ball State: Keys to the Game vs. Liberty
Ball State was 3-8 (.273) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-33rd-worst in FBS; Average: .420
Ball State was 1-6 (.143) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– 18th-worst in FBS; Average: .382
Ball State was 3-9 (.250) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-30th-worst in FBS; Average: .418
Ball State was 3-9 (.250) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season– T-19th-worst in FBS; Average: .479
Liberty: Keys to the Game vs. Ball State
Liberty was undefeated (6-0) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times in the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .399
Liberty was 10-1 (.909) when sacking the QB less than 3 times in the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .375
Liberty was 6-1 (.857) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties in the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .463
Liberty was undefeated (6-0) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times in the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .438
Matchup Notes for Ball State vs. Liberty
Liberty’s RBs averaged 12.1 yards after the catch last season — 5th-best among FBS RBs. Ball State’s defense allowed 9.1 RAC to RBs last season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Liberty gained 2,339 yards on 174 receptions (13.4 YPR) last season — T-18th-best among FBS skill players. Ball State’s defense allowed 12.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.
Liberty’s WRs had just 122.7 receiving yards per game last season — 25th-worst among FBS WRs. Ball State’s defense allowed 191.0 receiving yards per game to WRs last season — 12th-worst among FBS defenses.
Ball State had 156 receptions in 12 games (just 13.0 per game) last season — 8th-worst among FBS skill players. Liberty’s defense allowed just 16.9 receptions per game last season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.
Ball State’s WRs had 89 receptions in 12 games (just 7.4 per game) last season — 9th-worst among FBS WRs. Liberty’s defense allowed just 16.9 receptions per game last season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.
Ball State has 203 receptions in 14 games (just 14.5 per game) since the 2024 season — T-18th-worst among FBS skill players. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 16.5 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 24th-best among FBS defenses.
Ball State Offensive Stats & Trends
Ball State RBs averaged 10.9 Yards per Carry (208 yards/19 carries) last week– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2
Ball State were sacked on 18% of pass attempts (49/278) last season– 2nd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 6%
Ball State RBs averaged 21.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (128 yards / 6 touches) in the 4th quarter last week– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Ball State TEs averaged 8.5 receptions per game (102/12) last season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.4
Ball State were sacked on 18% of pass attempts (49/278) last season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Offenses; Average: 7%
Liberty Offensive Stats & Trends
Liberty gained 40+ yards on 2 of their 8 receptions (25%) last week– T-2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 4%
Liberty Skill Players averaged 23.2 yards per reception (186 yards/8 catches) last week– T-3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.4
Liberty’s RBs averaged 12.1 yards after the catch last season — 5th-best among FBS RBs. Ball State’s defense allowed 9.1 RAC to RBs last season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Liberty averaged 23.2 yards per reception (186 yards/8 catches) last week– T-3rd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 12.4
Liberty threw 6 interceptions in close and late situations last season– T-most among FBS Offenses
Ball State Defensive Stats & Trends
Ball State allowed 37 TD passes last season– 2nd-most in FBS
Ball State had no interceptions and 17 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 9.4
Ball State allowed 37 TD passes last season– 2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Ball State did not record a sack (50 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 16.4
Ball State allowed passes of 20+ yards on 57 of 376 attempts (15%) last season– worst in FBS; Average: 10%
Liberty Defensive Stats & Trends
Liberty did not record a sack (56 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 16.4
Liberty did not allow a first down on any of their opponents’ 25 rush attempts on 3rd and long last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 18%
Liberty did not record a sack (56 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1
Liberty allowed 12 TDs in close and late situations last season– 3rd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Liberty allowed a Completion Pct of 77% (33 completions/43 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go last season– 5th-worst in FBS; Average: 61%
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