- The Buffalo are a -3 point favorite vs. the Ball State Cardinals
- Buffalo vs. Ball State Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN2
Buffalo (6-3) visit Scheumann Stadium to take on Ball State (3-6) on Nov. 11 in Muncie, IN. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 pm.
The Buffalo are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -3 (+100).
The Buffalo vs. Ball State Over/Under is 51.5 total points.
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Buffalo vs. Ball State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Buffalo | -3 +100 | 51.5 -118 | -130 |
| Ball State | +3 -135 | 51.5 -102 | +110 |
Buffalo vs Ball State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Buffalo will win this game with 55.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Buffalo and the Ball State Cardinals, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Buffalo vs Ball State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Ball State will cover the spread with 51.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Buffalo Best Bets Today
- Buffalo has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+8.15 Units / 15% ROI)
- Buffalo has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.77 Units / 56% ROI)
- Buffalo has hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.82 Units / 43% ROI)
- Buffalo has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.64 Units / 35% ROI)
- Buffalo has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.95 Units / 49% ROI)
Ball State Best Bets Today
- Ball State has hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- Ball State have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.55 Units / 12% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.25 Units / 2% ROI)
Buffalo Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Buffalo is 5-4 against the spread this college football season (+0.52 Units / 5.22% ROI).
- Buffalo is 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.15 Units / 22.32% ROI
- Buffalo is 5-3 when betting the Over for +1.64 Units / 16.5% ROI
- Buffalo is 3-5 when betting the Under for -2.52 Units / -25.56% ROI
Ball State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Ball State Cardinals is 6-3 against the spread this college football season (+2.7 Units / 27.33% ROI).
- Ball State is 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Ball State is 7-2 when betting the Over for +4.85 Units / 49.34% ROI
- Ball State is 2-7 when betting the Under for -5.72 Units / -57.37% ROI
Buffalo: Keys to the Game vs. Ball State
Buffalo was 8-1 (.889) when allowing less than 3 sacks last season– T-4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .583
Buffalo was 8-2 (.800) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-10th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .584
Buffalo was 6-2 (.750) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-8th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .470
Buffalo was 9-3 (.750) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .552
Ball State: Keys to the Game vs. Buffalo
Ball State was 3-9 (.250) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season– T-19th-worst in FBS; Average: .479
Ball State was 1-4 (.200) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-19th-worst in FBS; Average: .460
Ball State was 1-6 (.143) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– 18th-worst in FBS; Average: .382
Ball State is 7-10 (.412) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2024 season– T-21st-worst in FBS; Average: .629
Matchup Notes for Buffalo vs. Ball State
Ball State’s offense threw for 1,679 passing yards in 12 games (just 139.9 YPG) last season — 8th-worst among FBS offenses. Buffalo’s defense allowed just 194.3 passing yards per game last season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.
Ball State’s QBs threw for 1,583 passing yards in 12 games (just 131.9 YPG) last season — 6th-worst among FBS teams. Buffalo’s defense allowed just 194.3 passing yards per game last season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.
Ball State’s WRs had just 86.0 receiving yards per game last season — 9th-worst among FBS WRs. Buffalo’s defense allowed just 194.3 receiving yards per game last season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.
Buffalo’s RBs averaged just 5.8 yards after the catch last season — T-18th-worst among FBS RBs. Ball State’s defense allowed 9.1 RAC to RBs last season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Buffalo’s WRs averaged 26.9 targets per game last season — 9th-highest among FBS WRs. Ball State’s defense allowed 14.2 receptions per game to WRs last season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.
Buffalo’s offense has thrown for 6,629 passing yards in 33 games (just 200.9 YPG) since the 2024 season — 32nd-worst among FBS offenses. Ball State’s defense has allowed 251.4 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 7th-worst among FBS defenses.
Buffalo Offensive Stats & Trends
Buffalo WRs were targeted 11 times in the Red Zone last week– most among FBS Teams
Buffalo Skill Players were targeted 12 times in the Red Zone last week– most among FBS Teams
Buffalo were targeted 13 times in the Red Zone last week– most among FBS Offenses
Buffalo TEs have 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations this season– T-most among FBS Teams
Buffalo TEs have 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Ball State Offensive Stats & Trends
Ball State TEs averaged 8.5 receptions per game (102/12) last season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.4
Ball State RBs averaged 62.8 rushing yards per game (753/12) last season– 2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 125.9
Ball State TEs were targeted 11.7 times per game (140/12) last season– 3rd-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Ball State TEs had 60 receptions in the 1st half last season– 3rd-most among FBS Teams
Ball State TEs had 26 receptions on 3rd down last season– 3rd-most among FBS Teams
Buffalo Defensive Stats & Trends
Buffalo sacked opposing QBs on 22% of pass attempts (5/23) last week– T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 8%
Buffalo has tackled opponents for a loss on just 40 of 327 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) this season– T-26th-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.
Buffalo sacked opposing QBs on 22% of pass attempts (5/23) last week– T-2nd-best in FBS; Average: 7%
Buffalo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 47% (18 completions/38 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– 9th-best in FBS; Average: 60%
Buffalo allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 1 of 20 carries (5%) on 3rd and long last season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19%
Ball State Defensive Stats & Trends
Ball State allowed 37 TD passes last season– 2nd-most in FBS
Ball State allowed 37 TD passes last season– 2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Ball State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 22% (2 completions/9 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 63%
Ball State did not record a sack (50 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1
Ball State allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 28 of their 404 carries (7%) last season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 4%
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