Massachusetts vs Toledo Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

• The Toledo Rockets are a -14 point favorite vs. the UMass Minutemen
• Massachusetts vs. Toledo Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
• TV Channel: CBSN

Massachusetts (5-4) visit Glass Bowl to take on Toledo (7-2) on Nov. 11 in Toledo, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 pm.

The Toledo Rockets are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -14 (-112).

The Massachusetts vs. Toledo Over/Under is 51.5 total points.

Bet now on Toledo Rockets vs UMass Minutemen & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Massachusetts vs. Toledo Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Massachusetts vs Toledo Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Toledo will win this game with 86.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the UMass Minutemen and the Toledo Rockets, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Massachusetts vs Toledo Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UMass will cover the spread with 67.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Massachusetts Best Bets Today

• Massachusetts has hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 away games (+18.00 Units / 298% ROI)
• Massachusetts has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+10.25 Units / 172% ROI)
• Massachusetts has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 52% ROI)
• Massachusetts have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.80 Units / 50% ROI)
• Massachusetts have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.80 Units / 46% ROI)

Toledo Best Bets Today

• Toledo has hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.50 Units / 30% ROI)
• Toledo has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.82 Units / 57% ROI)
• Toledo have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.20 Units / 34% ROI)
• Toledo has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.95 Units / 28% ROI)
• Toledo have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.78 Units / 25% ROI)

Massachusetts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UMass Minutemen is 4-5 against the spread this college football season (-1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI).

• Massachusetts is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.75 Units / 55.99% ROI
• Massachusetts is 3-5 when betting the Over for -2.5 Units / -25.38% ROI
• Massachusetts is 5-3 when betting the Under for +1.65 Units / 16.58% ROI

Toledo Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Toledo Rockets is 4-4 against the spread this college football season (-0.44 Units / -4.45% ROI).

• Toledo is 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -6 Units / -9.93% ROI
• Toledo is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.62 Units / 26.31% ROI
• Toledo is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.62 Units / -36.79% ROI

Massachusetts: Keys to the Game vs. Toledo

UMass is 1-11 (.083) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2024 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: .537

UMass was winless (0-4) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .481

UMass was winless (0-9) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .372

UMass is 1-12 (.077) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2024 season– 4th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .380

Toledo: Keys to the Game vs. Massachusetts

Toledo is 13-3 (.812) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2024 season– 24th-best in FBS; Average: .629

Toledo is 15-4 (.789) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2024 season– T-17th-best in FBS; Average: .593

Toledo was 7-3 (.700) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-37th-best in FBS; Average: .575

Toledo is 14-3 (.824) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2024 season– T-10th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .643

Matchup Notes for Massachusetts vs. Toledo

Toledo’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 11.6% of 397 attempts last season — T-31st-best among FBS offenses. UMass’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.2% of attempts last season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.

Toledo’s RBs averaged 9.7 yards after the catch last season — T-23rd-best among FBS RBs. UMass’s defense allowed 12.8 RAC last season — T-14th-worst among FBS defenses.

Toledo’s WRs has 502 receptions in 35 games (14.3 per game) since the 2024 season — T-34th-best among FBS WRs. UMass’s defense has allowed just 9.2 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — best among FBS defenses.

UMass’s offense threw for 1,981 passing yards in 12 games (just 165.1 YPG) last season — 18th-worst among FBS offenses. Toledo’s defense allowed just 158.0 passing yards per game last season — 3rd-best among NonP5 defenses.

UMass’s QBs threw for 1,976 passing yards in 12 games (just 164.7 YPG) last season — 20th-worst among FBS teams. Toledo’s defense allowed just 158.0 passing yards per game last season — 6th-best among FBS defenses.

UMass’s WRs has averaged just 11.8 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-15th-worst among FBS WRs. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 11.8 RAC to WRs since the 2024 season — T-18th-best among FBS defenses.

Massachusetts Offensive Stats & Trends

UMass WRs have averaged a touchdown every 40.8 receptions (245 Rec/6 TDs) since the 2024 season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.3

UMass completed passes for 40+ yards on 4 of their 25 total passing attempts (16%) last week– 4th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 2%

UMass WRs have just one touchdown on 7 receptions in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0

UMass gained 40+ yards on 4 of their 17 receptions (23%) last week– 4th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 4%

UMass WRs averaged a touchdown every 75.5 receptions (151 Rec/2 TDs) last season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4

Toledo Offensive Stats & Trends

Toledo have been sacked just once on 71 pass attempts on 3rd down this season– 4th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 10.5

Toledo WRs have no touchdowns on 33 receptions in close and late situations since the 2024 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.8

Toledo’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 11.6% of 397 attempts last season — T-31st-best among FBS offenses. UMass’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.2% of attempts last season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.

Toledo’s RBs averaged 9.7 yards after the catch last season — T-23rd-best among FBS RBs. UMass’s defense allowed 12.8 RAC last season — T-14th-worst among FBS defenses.

Toledo WRs have no touchdowns on 17 receptions in close and late situations this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.7

Massachusetts Defensive Stats & Trends

UMass has no interceptions and 23 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 9.0

UMass allowed 7.2 touchdowns per interception (29 TDs allowed, and 4 INT) last season– 5th-worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

UMass has no interceptions and 23 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 8.8

UMass has sacked opposing QBs just once on 62 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– 13th-worst in FBS; Average: 15.4

UMass allowed passes of 20+ yards on 8 of 38 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%

Toledo Defensive Stats & Trends

Toledo allowed a Completion Pct of just 9% (1 completions/11 attempts) on 3rd and short last season– best in FBS; Average: 63%

Toledo allowed a Completion Pct of just 9% (1 completions/11 attempts) on 3rd and short last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 63%

Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 52% (341 completions/651 attempts) since the 2024 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%

Toledo tackled opponents for a loss on 11 of 31 rushing attempts (35% TFL%) last week– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

Toledo has allowed 7 rushing TDs on 63 carries (9 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.5

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