Colorado vs Baylor Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 4

• The Baylor Bears are a -10 point favorite vs. the Colorado Buffaloes
• Colorado vs. Baylor Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
• TV Channel: ESPN2

Colorado (2-1) visit McLane Stadium to take on Baylor (2-1) on Sep. 26 in Waco, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 pm.

The Baylor Bears are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -10 (-105).

The Colorado vs. Baylor Over/Under is 55.5 total points.

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Colorado vs. Baylor Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Colorado vs Baylor Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Baylor will win this game with 70.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Colorado Buffaloes and the Baylor Bears, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Colorado vs Baylor Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Baylor will cover the spread with 65.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Colorado Best Bets Today

• Colorado has hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.90 Units / 54% ROI)
• Colorado has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.85 Units / 53% ROI)
• Colorado has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.90 Units / 44% ROI)
• Colorado has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.35 Units / 19% ROI)

Baylor Best Bets Today

• Baylor has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.85 Units / 25% ROI)
• Baylor has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.75 Units / 26% ROI)
• Baylor has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.60 Units / 3% ROI)
• Baylor has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+0.60 Units / 1% ROI)
• Baylor has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.50 Units / 4% ROI)

Colorado Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Colorado Buffaloes is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

• Colorado is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 50% ROI
• Colorado is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -3.03% ROI
• Colorado is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -3.03% ROI

Baylor Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Baylor Bears is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.69% ROI).

• Baylor is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
• Baylor is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.15 Units / -35.38% ROI
• Baylor is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 26.87% ROI

Colorado: Keys to the Game vs. Baylor

Colorado was undefeated (7-0) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .618

Colorado is 1-8 (.111) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .489

Colorado is 1-8 (.111) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-11th-worst in FBS; Average: .455

Colorado is 2-5 (.286) when not forcing and recovering a fumble this season– T-12th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .524

Baylor: Keys to the Game vs. Colorado

Baylor was 1-10 (.091) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .576

Baylor was 2-5 (.286) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .420

Baylor was 1-4 (.200) when in a one score game last season– T-6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514

Baylor was 2-7 (.222) when rushing more than 30 times in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .665

Matchup Notes for Colorado vs. Baylor

Baylor’s TEs had 61 receptions in 12 games (5.1 per game) last season — T-5th-best among Big 12 TEs. Colorado’s defense allowed just 14.8 receptions per game last season — T-5th-best among FBS defenses.

Baylor’s TEs had 61 receptions in 12 games (5.1 per game) last season — T-5th-best among Big 12 TEs. Colorado’s defense allowed just 14.8 receptions per game last season — 2nd-best among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor’s TEs gained 800 yards on 61 receptions (13.1 YPR) last season — 4th-best among Big 12 TEs. Colorado’s defense allowed 13.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-3rd-worst among P5 defenses.

Colorado’s TEs had 20 receptions in 10 games (just 2.0 per game) last season — 2nd-worst among Big 12 TEs. Baylor’s defense allowed just 17.8 receptions per game last season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Colorado’s TEs gained 149 yards on 20 receptions (just 7.4 YPR) last season — worst among Big 12 TEs. Baylor’s defense allowed just 10.9 Yards Per Reception last season — 4th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Colorado gained 2,413 yards on 207 receptions (just 11.7 YPR) last season — 5th-worst among Big 12 skill players. Baylor’s defense allowed just 10.9 Yards Per Reception last season — 4th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Colorado Offensive Stats & Trends

Colorado WRs averaged 23.3 receptions per game (303/13) last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.6

Colorado TEs averaged just 2.0 yards per reception (2 yards/1 catches) in the 4th quarter last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.3

Colorado WRs averaged 23.3 receptions per game (303/13) last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.3

Colorado WRs had 40 receptions in the Red Zone last season– most among Power Conference Teams

Colorado TEs caught 10 of 11 passes(91% Reception Pct) last season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 62%

Baylor Offensive Stats & Trends

Baylor Skill Players have been targeted 123 times in the 4th quarter this season– most among Big 12 Teams

Baylor Skill Players have been targeted 42.0 times per game (504/12) this season– highest among Big 12 Teams; Average: 30.3

Baylor WRs have averaged just 8.3 yards per reception (166 yards/20 catches) on 3rd and long this season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 15.7

Baylor TEs have 5 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams

Baylor Skill Players have averaged 25.8 receptions per game (309/12) this season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 19.2

Colorado Defensive Stats & Trends

Colorado sacked opposing QBs on 10% of pass attempts (39/391) last season– best in the Big 12; Average: 6%

Colorado sacked opponents 39 times last season– most in the Big 12

Colorado allowed 48.2 receiving yards per game (627/13) to RBs last season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 25.0

Colorado has allowed a Completion Pct of just 38% (12 completions/32 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%

Colorado has allowed 13.5 yards per completion (2,410 yards/178 completions) this season– T-3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.2

Baylor Defensive Stats & Trends

Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.2

Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 14.9

Baylor allowed 8.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (343 yards / 40 touches) on 3rd and short last season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 5.1

Baylor has allowed 8.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (343 yards / 40 touches) on 3rd and short this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 5.1

Baylor tackled opponents for a loss on just 62 of 491 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) last season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 15%.

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