Colorado State vs UTSA Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 4

• The UT San Antonio Roadrunners are a -13 point favorite vs. the Colorado State Rams
• Colorado State vs. UTSA Total (Over/Under): 58.5 points
• TV Channel: ESPNU

Colorado State (2-1) visit Alamodome to take on UTSA (2-1) on Sep. 26 in San Antonio, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 pm.

The UT San Antonio Roadrunners are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -13 (-108).

The Colorado State vs. UTSA Over/Under is 58.5 total points.

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Colorado State vs. UTSA Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Colorado State vs UTSA Prediction:

The winning team model predicts UTSA will win this game with 74.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Colorado State Rams and the UT San Antonio Roadrunners, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Colorado State vs UTSA Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UTSA will cover the spread with 68.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Colorado State Best Bets Today

• Colorado State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.40 Units / 24% ROI)
• Colorado State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Colorado State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.25 Units / 9% ROI)

UTSA Best Bets Today

• UTSA has hit the Game Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 91% ROI)
• UTSA has hit the 1H Game Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 89% ROI)
• UTSA has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.50 Units / 18% ROI)
• UTSA have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 60% ROI)
• UTSA have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 55% ROI)

Colorado State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Colorado State Rams is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.44% ROI).

• Colorado State is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 6.54% ROI
• Colorado State is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 91.46% ROI
• Colorado State is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.32 Units / -100% ROI

UTSA Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UT San Antonio Roadrunners is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 93.17% ROI).

• UTSA is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.05 Units / 2.23% ROI
• UTSA is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.59% ROI
• UTSA is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.88 Units / 26.51% ROI

Colorado State: Keys to the Game vs. UTSA

Colorado State is winless (0-7) when not forcing and recovering a fumble this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .441

Colorado State is winless (0-7) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .481

Colorado State is winless (0-10) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .438

Colorado State is 1-10 (.091) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season– 6th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .441

UTSA: Keys to the Game vs. Colorado State

UTSA is 6-1 (.857) when intercepting at least 1 pass this season– T-14th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .632

UTSA was 1-2 (.333) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .460

UTSA is 1-4 (.200) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season– 11th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .481

UTSA is 1-4 (.200) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season– 15th-worst in FBS; Average: .531

Matchup Notes for Colorado State vs. UTSA

UTSA’s WRs has averaged just 10.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 4th-worst among FBS WRs. Colorado State’s defense has allowed 13.4 RAC since the 2024 season — T-4th-worst among FBS defenses.

UTSA’s WRs has 237 receptions in 16 games (14.8 per game) since the 2024 season — T-22nd-best among FBS WRs. Colorado State’s defense has allowed just 16.1 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-13th-best among FBS defenses.

UTSA has averaged just 9.8 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 6th-worst among FBS skill players. Colorado State’s defense has allowed 13.4 RAC since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst among NonP5 defenses.

Colorado State’s TEs gained 505 yards on 40 receptions (12.6 YPR) last season — best among Pac-12 TEs. UTSA’s defense allowed 12.3 Yards Per Reception last season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.

Colorado State had just 1.2 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-3rd-worst among Pac-12 skill players. UTSA’s defense allowed 2.0 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-12th-worst among FBS defenses.

Colorado State had 15 receiving touchdowns last season — 4th-fewest among Pac-12 skill players. UTSA’s defense allowed 26 receiving touchdowns last season — T-3rd-most among NonP5 defenses.

Colorado State Offensive Stats & Trends

Colorado State RBs have 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– T-most among FBS Teams

Colorado State WRs have averaged a touchdown every 27.6 receptions (138 Rec/5 TDs) this season– 7th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4

Colorado State’s TEs gained 505 yards on 40 receptions (12.6 YPR) last season — best among Pac-12 TEs. UTSA’s defense allowed 12.3 Yards Per Reception last season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.

Colorado State RBs had 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– T-most among FBS Teams

Colorado State RBs have 10 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

UTSA Offensive Stats & Trends

UTSA TEs were targeted 52 times on 3rd down last season– most among FBS Teams

UTSA TEs have 16 receptions in the Red Zone this season– most among FBS Teams

UTSA TEs have been targeted 38 times in the 1st quarter this season– most among FBS Teams

UTSA have thrown 9 TDs and just one interception in the 4th quarter this season– T-7th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 1.6

UTSA TEs picked up first downs on 24 receptions on 3rd down last season– most among FBS Teams

Colorado State Defensive Stats & Trends

Colorado State did not record a sack (38 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0

Colorado State did not record a sack (38 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.6

Colorado State has allowed 209.3 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 149.5

Colorado State allowed a Completion Pct of 72% (278 completions/388 attempts) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%

Colorado State sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (17/428) last season– T-6th-worst in FBS; Average: 7%

UTSA Defensive Stats & Trends

UTSA tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 31 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.

UTSA tackled opponents for a loss on 17 of 63 rushing attempts (27% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.

UTSA tackled opponents for a loss on 17 of 63 rushing attempts (27% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 15%.

UTSA tackled opponents for a loss on 97 of 420 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) last season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 16%.

UTSA tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 31 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 10%.

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