The preseason is over for reigning national champion Indiana. With the Hoosiers beginning their march toward another Big Ten championship this week, there’s sure to be some increased betting interest in Indiana.
BetMGM has NCAA football odds available for all the Week 4 college football action.
Indiana vs. Northwestern Odds
- Point Spread: Indiana -20.5
- Moneyline: Indiana -1600 | Northwestern +1050
- Over/Under: 49.5
Indiana vs. Northwestern: Prediction and Preview
The honeymoon is over for Indiana bettors. After Curt Cignetti obliterated most Indiana point spreads over the last two years, the Hoosiers are 0-3 ATS to start the season.
In other words, Indiana reached the inevitable “chronically overvalued favorite” status that awaits all national college football powers.
One quick anecdote on this: Last week, one of my college football handicapping partners was discussing Saturday’s Indiana game against Western Kentucky. He said, “I think Indiana can name their score, and I think they will.”
He wasn’t necessarily wrong. But the score Indiana elected to name was 38-0, missing the cover on its 44.5-point spread. The Hoosiers scored two touchdowns in the first half and only one in the fourth quarter, generally keeping the offense in first and second gear.
Cignetti no longer has to play the perception game in Bloomington. He doesn’t have to blast nonconference teams by 75 points like he did these last few years at Indiana and JMU. Indiana is the standard now. They already have the respect of the biggest names in the sport and the decision-makers on the playoff committee.
But I believe there are more practical elements in play, too. As I heard one Indiana alum and advantage bettor put it, the Hoosiers played 16 games last year, and their schedule didn’t finish until late January. They had returning players with injuries and offseason surgeries. They had new guys who are replacing NFL draft picks. Cignetti used this offseason to test his depth, play new guys, and get everyone healthy before conference season.
That long-term approach appears to have suppressed the Indiana football odds market. If you stripped out the September context of both teams, I would make the fair market number on this would be closer to -27.
The other factor in this number is Northwestern, which is coming off a 34-point blowout of Colorado, and the Buffs had looked pretty decent through Week 2. That’s another factor that’s preventing this spread from being placed in total blowout territory.
Indiana vs. Northwestern Prediction
I am predicting a win and cover for Indiana.
To consistently find success betting favorites, you have to handicap the game circumstances and the rosters & matchups. When will a favorite beat market expectations by delivering a complete performance?
I think this is a good time to anticipate a stronger performance from Indiana – a team that’s definitely three touchdowns better than Northwestern (and many other Big Ten teams) when it’s playing its best first-string football.
Prediction: Indiana -20.5
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