How Often Do College Football Favorites Cover the Spread?

College football betting can be fundamentally different from its NFL counterpart. After all, when was the last time you saw somebody lay 38 and the hook in a professional football game?

Football odds have different nuances in different leagues and levels. To be sure, one of the key hallmarks of the college football spreads market is the potential for huge numbers. 

Sometimes, laying a large number is even the right call. It typically happens at least once per week in my college football best bets column.

Overall, though, how often do college football favorites actually cover the spread? I dove into the data to find an answer.

How Often Do College Football Favorites Cover the Spread?

Since 2005, college football favorites playing in regular-season games cover the spread 49.7% of the time.

Since 2018, when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned PASPA, favorites have won at a slightly lower clip of 49.6%.

Last year, during the 2025 regular season, favorites had a relatively strong record against the spread, covering 51% against the closing number.

As experienced bettors can tell you, handicappers need to win about 52.4% of their bets in a typical -110 point spread market to break even. That means blind-betting favorites in college football is a losing proposition, even in a decent season for favorites like 2025. 

Choose your favorites with caution. Or better yet, consider how often college football underdogs cover the spread, and bet the other side instead.