How Often Do College Football Underdogs Cover the Spread?

When it comes to online sports betting, the most popular market for NCAA fans is generally the college football spreads section of the online sportsbook. 

Unlike the NFL, FBS college football has more than 100 teams, with most of them in action every week from Labor Day through Thanksgiving. 

For those experienced in betting NCAA football odds, diving into the deep corners of the sport for an undervalued dog is part of the fun. But how often do underdogs actually cover the spread?

I crunched the numbers to find a definitive answer. 

How Often Do College Football Underdogs Cover the Spread?

Since 2005, college football underdogs playing in regular-season games cover the spread 50.3% of the time.

Since 2018, when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned PASPA, underdogs have won at a slightly higher rate of 50.7%.

Last year, during the 2024 regular season, dogs covered at 51% against the closing number.

After accounting for the vig, that’s not quite high enough to be a profitable betting endeavor – though it does beat how often college football favorites cover the spread.

The lesson here is to choose your college football betting spots with care. Make sure you check out my weekly college football picks if you’re looking for a little help on where to start.