It’s finally here. The most epic weekend of regular-season college football this year.
Top teams will face each other in key showdowns that will have far-reaching implications into this year’s College Football Playoff and beyond.
You know the names. It’s BYU vs. Utah. Notre Dame vs. Miami. LSU vs. Alabama.
And for this week’s best bets column … I’m not touching any of that stuff.
As always, I’ve spent the week sorting through the college football odds market and finding what I feel are the best betting angles. More often than not, those opportunities are in random, ugly games that the market is pricing incorrectly or ignoring.
After you’re done reading this article, make sure you circle back to my early Week 10 college football bets, which may still have some value this week.
Baylor vs. Iowa State Prediction
Baylor got its dead-cat bounce last week at UCF after firing Dave Aranda, and the market is now over-adjusting based on the result.
What has Baylor shown us this year that suggests the Bears should be a double-digit favorite in a conference game?
Iowa State has been a tough out this year. I expect them to shorten this game with fewer possessions, which makes a key number like 10 quite attractive.
Bonus bet: As a corollary to market overreactions to Baylor/UCF, I’d look at UCF’s +115 moneyline at Kansas, too.
Prediction: Iowa State +10
San Jose State vs. Northern Illinois Prediction
San Jose State has been the most consistent under team in college football this year, and the market simply has not adjusted.
This is a total in the low 50s for a team that’s 8-1 to the under, playing against a winless offense that ranks 128th in net EPA/play.
It doesn’t get much better than that.
Prediction: Under 51.5
Boise State vs. Colorado State Prediction
On the other hand, Colorado State has been the best college football team for overs this year, and I don’t think a matchup against the Boise State offense is suddenly going to result in a different outcome. This game will be a shootout.
Prediction: Over 68.5
Florida vs. Oklahoma Prediction
Is the win over Texas just completely skewing Oklahoma’s market? Because I don’t really get this number.
Let’s briefly recap the last two months of Sooner football. In September, Oklahoma lost to Michigan (which isn’t a good team) and beat New Mexico in a one-possession game. It’s been blown out by Georgia and South Carolina. It managed a one-possession win against a Mississippi State team that didn’t have healthy Kamario Taylor.
The offense is broken, and almost nothing on this team’s resume is compelling. The exception is the comeback win over Texas, which was ranked No. 1 at the time of the game. That big win revitalized Oklahoma’s season in the eyes of the market.
But if you ignore that one game, there’s really not much here that says Oklahoma can keep up with Florida’s offense in the Swamp. I actually think Florida rolls here and would consider some alt spreads on top of the -6.5
Prediction: Florida -6.5
Liberty vs. New Mexico State Prediction
Liberty lost its Week 1 game at JMU and has pretty much been stomping all of Conference USA ever since.
The Week 1 loss, along with the general downs of Liberty’s 2025 season, threw a lot of bettors off the Flames’ scent. But Liberty is clearly playing like the class of the conference and is winning by margin every week.
I picked up on this market gap a few weeks ago and have been going back to the well with Liberty every week.
The market needs to make Liberty totally unbettable with point spreads in the 20s or 30s. Until then, Liberty is an auto-bet virtually every week.
Prediction: Liberty -16.5
Oregon State vs. Texas State Prediction
There’s a reason this number is over 70. Oregon State continues to play unstoppable offense behind FBS-leading receiver Jesse Legree, and Texas State is well-equipped to play in a shootout. The Bobcats lost 46-45 in Boise last week.
A return trip to the Pacific Northwest should be grounds for another shootout.
Prediction: Over 71.5
College Football Week 10 Best Bets
- Iowa State +10
- San Jose State/Northern Illinois Under 51.5
- Boise State/Colorado State Over 68.5
- Florida -6.5
- Liberty -16.5
- Oregon State/Texas State Over 71.5
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