Malachi Toney’s Injury Completely Changes the 2026 Heisman Market

We interrupt this monster week of college football to bring you breaking news from Miami. 

After injuring his ankle in practice on Wednesday, star receiver Malachi Toney is moving to have immediate surgery to repair it on Wednesday in the hopes that he’ll be back for a likely College Football Playoff appearance. 

The immediate implications for this week is that Miami will play its biggest game of the regular season (at Notre Dame) without Toney’s explosiveness on the field. 

But the most interesting wrinkle comes in the Heisman Trophy odds market, where Toney was seen as one of the most likely challengers to one-time favorite Jeremiah Smith. 

Since Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin was injured in Week 7, Smith’s market position has been backsliding – primarily to the benefit of Toney and his quarterback in Miami, Darian Mensah.

So far, the odds have favored Mensah as the top challenger to the Jeremiah Smith status quo, since he’s a quarterback, and the Heisman Trophy is typically won by a quarterback. 

But in media polls like The Athletic’s Heisman straw poll, Toney was seen as the most likely challenger, perhaps because he’s the more natural and undeniable playmaker of the two Miami stars.

According to initial reports, Toney’s injury will likely keep him off the field for the remainder of the regular season, which all but removes him from Heisman contention. He won’t be able to mount a late-season charge to win the award if he’s not playing at all.

If Malachi Toney Is Hurt, Who Benefits In the Heisman Race?

The simplest answer is Mensah. With Ohio State in serious danger of not making the playoff at all, and Toney no longer a threat to split Mensah’s vote share, Miami’s quarterback is now in his strongest Heisman position of the season. 

But there are several situations worth considering beyond the Miami Hurricanes. Consider:

What if Notre Dame Beats Miami?

Mensah can probably lock up the Heisman Trophy this weekend if he has an awesome game and drives Miami to a win without Toney.

However, if the Fighting Irish beat Miami this week – as the college football odds seem to expect – Mensah will probably take a big hit. This is Miami’s signature opportunity for a big win against a ranked, non-ACC team, so a loss could really hurt the perception of both Mensah and the team as a whole. 

If Miami’s offense looks particularly bad, it’ll be a double-whammy, since voters could punish Mensah for the appearance that Toney has been the driving force behind the team’s success this year.

On the other sideline, Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr would be in a position to gain some additional Heisman praise. And indeed, Carr has been adjusted down to 6-to-1 since the Toney news in anticipation of a Notre Dame win and one less major Heisman contender on the field in November.

But the problem with Carr as a Heisman contender is that voters don’t appear to like him. The Athletic’s straw poll isn’t a perfect representation of the entire voter bloc, but Carr is receiving zero votes in the most recent survey. Like, zero. No first-place votes. No second-place votes. No third-place votes. He’s 6-to-1 in the market but basically dead on arrival with the voters.

A win over Miami would certainly sway some voters toward him, but would it be enough to take him from total non-factor to potential winner? It’s highly unlikely. 

The Heisman market has loved Carr since before the season even started, but voters are suggesting that love is totally unfounded. One win against Miami almost certainly wouldn’t change that.

Does this Mean Jeremiah Smith Is Back In Play?

Some bettors probably are discounting Smith a bit too much. He’s having an excellent season and even caught 10 balls from Ohio State’s freshman backup quarterback last week at USC. 

If the top of the market really falls apart this month, I do think there will be some appetite to give the Heisman to Smith, regardless of what his stats look like over this last month of the regular season. 

The challenge with Smith is Ohio State’s team status. Smith’s individual talent is clearly great enough to win the award, but with Luke Fahey now running the Ohio State offense, there is real concern that Ohio State could completely fall apart this month. The Buckeyes are 6-2 and still have games against Oregon, Northwestern, and Michigan.

If Ohio State finishes 9-3 or 8-4, is its best player going to win the Heisman? 

If you’re asking me personally, I would still vote for him, since he’s plainly the best player in college football. But I’m not sure the voter pool feels as strongly as I do.

So… Who’s Left?

There are two key players I haven’t mentioned yet, and they happen to be playing head-to-head this weekend.

Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss is the only other player who’s currently shorter than 50-to-1. And as I’ve talked about many times, Chambliss absolutely has the personal narrative to thrive in a Heisman race. He’s a player I have personally bet on in this market. 

Chambliss could be in a great position to take a step forward this weekend, depending on how the games shake out. But the problem is that Ole Miss, like Ohio State, has already lost two games. And who’s coming to town this weekend? It’s the first-place Georgia Bulldogs, led by quarterback Gunner Stockton.

If Miami loses to Notre Dame and Ole Miss beats Georgia, I think Chambliss probably wakes up Sunday morning as the Heisman Trophy favorite. So the fact that he’s currently available at 15-to-1 is pretty incredible.

But don’t sleep on Stockton here, who’s the dual-threat quarterback of a team that’s still got a great shot to enter the College Football Playoff as the No. 1 seed and betting favorite. 

At 66-to-1, Stockton is priced like a longshot for now, but his path to the Heisman Trophy is getting awfully clear.