G6 Playoff Tracker: Ranking the Non-Power Schools With the Best Chance for the CFP

Since the College Football Playoff expanded to 12 teams in 2024, teams from non-power conferences have been granted guaranteed access to the postseason. 

That guaranteed access remains intact in 2026, though the rules have changed yet again on what access looks like.

Keep reading for the most thorough G6 evaluation in college football.

How Does the G6 Playoff Bid Work This Season?

In 2026, the highest-ranked G6 team will be included in the College Football Playoff bracket at the end of the regular season. The highest-ranking G6 team does not have to be a conference champion.

The G6 team will be slotted in as the No. 12 seed, unless it’s actually ranked among the top 11 teams by the CFP committee. A top-11 team would be seeded in accordance with its ranking. 

In previous seasons, the CFP awarded automatic bids to the five highest-ranked conference champions. After some shenanigans involving the ACC in 2025, the committee amended the rules to prevent power conferences from yielding too many bids to non-power teams.

Now that we know how the 2026 bid will be awarded, let’s take a look at which teams are in the best position, according to BetMGM’s 2026 College Football Playoff odds. 

G6 Playoff Tracker

G6 Playoff Odds: Boise State

After 20 years of strong year-to-year performance, Boise State is widely considered to be the top G6 program. The Broncos made the inaugural 12-team playoff in 2024 on the back of an elite ground game with Ashton Jeanty. 

That perception and history are directly shaping this top-of-market price. Boise State will be 0-1 after opening at Oregon and could plausibly fall out of playoff contention with a Week 2 loss to fellow playoff contender Memphis – just as the Broncos did last year with an early loss at South Florida. Personally, I have them penciled in for a loss on Oct. 10 at Fresno State.

Boise is a premium G6 college football brand. To bet on BSU to make the playoff, you have to be prepared to pay a premium price. I would argue the price just doesn’t match the fundamentals. We don’t know how the new Pac-12 will shake out, nor are we sure that the 2026 Boise roster will clearly be the top team in this new conference. 

G6 Playoff Odds: James Madison

JMU’s rapid ascent from FCS juggernaut to powerful FBS brand was fully realized in 2025. The Dukes ran the table in the Sun Belt and punched a ticket to the playoff, firmly inserting themselves into a higher echelon of relevance within the sport.

As is the case with Boise, there’s an inevitable effect on playoff cost after that happens. Despite the fact that JMU’s roster and coaching staff were once again mangled by offseason transition, the Dukes are a mere 10-to-1 to make it back to the playoff again this year with new head coach Billy Napier. 

This price is, in my opinion, completely insane. JMU has no P4 opponent on the schedule this year to hang a playoff bid on. It plays most of its key conference rivals – Old Dominion, App State, Georgia Southern – on the road. The week before its trip to in-state rival ODU, it will play a game on the West Coast against San Diego State. And it will do all this with a revamped roster that’s been largely reconstructed via the transfer portal. 

Will all the new pieces work together? Is there an FBS-caliber quarterback on this roster? Nobody knows. 

This team could be really good. It could also be really average. It’s entirely an exercise in trusting Napier’s coaching staff and recruiting job over the last eight months. Unless you put on a purple shirt every Saturday morning and drive to Harrisonburg to tailgate, does this level of risk assumption really make sense at 10-to-1?

G6 Playoff Odds: UNLV

In UNLV’s first season under Dan Mullen, the Rebels won 10 games and played in the conference championship game. With Boise now departed, UNLV will battle with New Mexico and FBS newcomer North Dakota State for a watered-down Mountain West title.

Could UNLV make the playoff? It’s definitely possible. They have the talent and coaching staff for it, which is why the Rebels are priced alongside JMU as one of the top teams to consider.  

The key hurdle here is the schedule, which includes a Week 0 game against Memphis and road games against Air Force and New Mexico. At 12-1 or 13-0, they could be in the mix, but you’ve got to believe they can navigate multiple challenging road games in the Mountain West.

G6 Playoff Odds: UTSA

UTSA is a veteran team with continuity at coach and quarterback. It might be the G6 playoff frontrunner with the easiest, most obvious path to playoff contention. 

Beyond road games at Texas in Week 3, UTSA’s schedule is fairly navigable. It includes two Pac-12 opponents (Colorado State, at Texas State) and a friendly American schedule that delivers Navy and North Texas to San Antonio. 

If the Roadrunners can win at Tulane on Oct. 24, it’s easy to imagine a UTSA team that’s 11-1, with only a loss at Texas, heading into the AAC title game. The biggest cause for alarm is simply UTSA’s recent history – Jeff Traylor hasn’t had a double-digit season since 2022. 

G6 Playoff Odds: South Florida

With all due respect to South Florida, I find this price baffling and ridiculous. USF lost head coach Alex Golesh and quarterback Byrum Brown to Auburn. The defense will be a middle-of-the-road unit in the American this year, which already isn’t a conference known for stellar defensive balance. 

I don’t see USF contending for a conference title, let alone a playoff berth. Considering them at a relatively short price like this seems like a non-starter. 

G6 Playoff Odds: Army

Army may have finished the 2025 regular season as a six-win team, but be careful not to let that color your opinion too much. Five of the Black Knights’ six losses were by one score, including three that came by three points or fewer and two that were decided by a single point.

Army played more like a team that should have finished 9-3, and the positive regression could be coming this year. That’s especially true with four starting offensive linemen back. Phil Steele has this ranked as his No. 9 offensive line in all of college football.

The defense has some question marks, especially on the back end. I’d personally like a little more squeeze on this price, which is ultimately why I prefer Army in win total markets versus playoff markets. But this should be a strong year for both Army and Navy, which means taking the Black Knights seriously in any playoff context. They’ll likely be 4-0 entering a key Week 6 home game against Tulane. 

G6 Playoff Odds: Memphis

Memphis is a huge mixed bag this year. On the one hand, this is a program that’s won 29 games in three years and has been heavily involved in the G6 playoff race in both seasons since the 12-team expansion. 

This year, Memphis doesn’t have a game against a power-conference school – a key schedule piece from the last two seasons, when the Tigers beat Florida State (2024) and Arkansas (2025). Instead, it has head-to-head games against the Pac-12 (Week 2 at Boise State) and Mountain West (Week 0 at UNLV). 

Those games are great opportunities for both Memphis and the American, which is looking to reassert itself as the top G6 conference following the Pac-12’s reconstitution.

The problem here is the roster. Ryan Silverfield left for Arkansas after last season, and Memphis replaced him with Charles Huff, previously at Southern Miss and Marshall. I think Huff is a nice hire, but the roster looks like it’s probably a year away from serious top-level G6 contention.

Of course, in the age of the portal, there’s always the chance that Huff and his staff nailed all the additions. On balance, Memphis looks like a playoff coaching staff and a playoff schedule, but I have big questions about the back end of the defense. 

G6 Playoff Odds: Navy

Navy is the favorite to win the AAC this summer, at least according to BetMGM’s college football odds. I’m not sure I agree with the market on this.

Navy has some real positions of strength, including offensive line and linebacker. And the team won 11 games last year, including back-to-back games against South Florida and Memphis that really made late-season commentators think hard about their longshot playoff potential.

Personally, I think this team is bound for some negative regression. The October portion of the schedule is brutal, with games at Air Force and UTSA preceding key home games against North Texas and Notre Dame.

Navy doesn’t have to beat Notre Dame to make the playoff, but it doesn’t have much margin for error outside of its marquee matchup against the Irish.  With only 10 other games scheduled by the time the committee publishes the playoff bracket, Navy may have to either beat Notre Dame or be 10-0 against the rest of its schedule to nab the playoff bracket. I’m a bit skeptical of that kind of bet in this price range. 

G6 Playoff Odds: North Dakota State

Here we have one of the most fascinating elements of the upcoming 2026 season. How seriously should we take North Dakota State – winner of 10 FCS national championships since 2011 – in its inaugural FBS season?

Gone are the days of dismissing new FBS arrivals out of hand. JMU and Jacksonville State have both proven in recent years that quality teams can succeed immediately after moving up from FCS, and North Dakota State clearly has the football culture to win right away.

A few weeks ago, I joined Fargo Forum columnist Mike McFeely to talk in greater detail about what’s possible – and what’s not – for North Dakota State in Year 1 of FBS. To summarize: I’m skeptical of the schedule, and McFeely is skeptical of the roster. 

NDSU will surely be a major G6 player at the FBS level, but approach Year 1 with some moderate skepticism – at least as far as playoffs and championships are concerned.

G6 Playoff Odds: New Mexico

New Mexico looks a bit like UTSA this year in that it’s a good team that brings a lot back from last year and will play an easy, straightforward schedule. 

The Lobos will lose to Oklahoma in Week 3. But they also draw North Dakota State, UNLV, and Air Force at home, which could put them in the driver’s seat for the Mountain West. If they’re 11-1 at the end of November, they’ll be in the conversation to make the playoff.

That’s not a bad value in this price range. 

G6 Playoff Odds: Tulane

While I have great respect for what Tulane has done over the past four seasons – 43 wins since 2022! – I’m going to need to see wins on the field from Will Hall before I take this team seriously.

G6 Playoff Odds: Fresno State

This is my personal favorite, at least before the season starts. Fresno State has a clear team identity under Matt Entz. The Bulldogs will be stout at the line of scrimmage, and they may benefit from the Pac-12 branding. They have a Week 1 opportunity to steal a major win from a USC team that has a tendency to look soft and finesse against power teams, which is exactly what Fresno is trying to be.

Could Fresno State be a playoff team with a win against USC and a good showing in the Pac-12? Absolutely. As an added bonus, its game against Boise State is at home this year, which could help neutralize its biggest in-conference threat. 

Because of the team fundamentals, this is a program I would target at virtually any cost. The fact that it’s 30-to-1, instead of 14-to-1, takes this from a nice bet to an incredibly lucrative one.

Even if you came from the future and told me Fresno State loses to USC on Sept. 4, I would still think this is mispriced and ripe for betting. Fresno State football odds are one of my biggest personal targets of the summer. 

For me, Fresno State isn’t just a playoff sleeper – they’re the team I think will represent the G6 this year in the CFP, full stop. 

G6 College Football Playoff Predictions

• Fresno State (+3000) will make the 2026 College Football Playoff
• Boise State and James Madison will have fine years but fall short of lofty market expectations
• North Dakota State will make a bowl in its first FBS season but struggle with difficult road games
• UNLV, UTSA, New Mexico, and Army will flirt with CFP relevance

G6 Playoff Bid History