- The Ole Miss Rebels are a -1 point favorite vs. the Florida Gators
- Ole Miss vs. Florida Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points
- TV Channel: ABC
Ole Miss (3-0) visit Ben Hill Griffin Stadium to take on Florida (3-0) on Sep. 26 in Gainesville, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm.
The Ole Miss Rebels are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -1 (+130).
The Ole Miss vs. Florida Over/Under is 57.5 total points.
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Ole Miss vs. Florida Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Ole Miss | -1 +130 | 57.5 +105 | +130 |
| Florida | +1 -175 | 57.5 -135 | -155 |
Ole Miss vs Florida Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Florida will win this game with 56.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Ole Miss Rebels and the Florida Gators, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Ole Miss vs Florida Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Florida will cover the spread with 54.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Florida Gators vs Ole Miss Rebels and all games with BetMGM
Ole Miss Best Bets Today
- Ole Miss has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+8.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- Ole Miss has hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+5.55 Units / 1% ROI)
- Ole Miss has hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.38 Units / 20% ROI)
- Ole Miss has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.60 Units / 17% ROI)
- Ole Miss have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.00 Units / 13% ROI)
Florida Best Bets Today
- Florida has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 52% ROI)
- Florida have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Florida have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)
- Florida has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+4.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- Florida has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.60 Units / 1% ROI)
Ole Miss Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Ole Miss Rebels is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Ole Miss is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.3 Units / 65.71% ROI
- Ole Miss is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Ole Miss is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Florida Gators is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Florida is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 6.6% ROI
- Florida is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Florida is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Ole Miss: Keys to the Game vs. Florida
Ole Miss is undefeated (10-0) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-best in FBS; Average: .603
Ole Miss is 8-1 (.889) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: .426
Ole Miss is undefeated (12-0) when rushing more than 30 times this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .672
Ole Miss is 9-2 (.818) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times this season– T-5th-best in FBS; Average: .436
Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Ole Miss
Florida is 1-7 (.125) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .493
Florida is 3-7 (.300) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season– T-30th-worst in FBS; Average: .474
Florida is 3-7 (.300) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-34th-worst in FBS; Average: .455
Florida is 3-7 (.300) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .510
Matchup Notes for Ole Miss vs. Florida
Florida had just 204.6 receiving yards per game last season — 4th-worst among SEC skill players. Ole Miss’s defense allowed just 198.9 receiving yards per game last season — 5th-best among SEC defenses.
Florida’s WRs had just 148.8 receiving yards per game last season — 3rd-worst among SEC WRs. Ole Miss’s defense allowed just 198.9 receiving yards per game last season — 5th-best among SEC defenses.
Florida’s WRs had 148 receptions in 12 games (just 12.3 per game) last season — 4th-worst among SEC WRs. Ole Miss’s defense allowed just 17.3 receptions per game last season — 4th-best among SEC defenses.
Ole Miss’s TEs gained 783 yards on 54 receptions (14.5 YPR) last season — 2nd-best among SEC TEs. Florida’s defense allowed 12.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Ole Miss’s WRs gained 3,679 yards on 248 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — T-3rd-best among SEC WRs. Florida’s defense allowed 12.5 Yards Per Reception last season — 3rd-worst among SEC defenses.
Ole Miss gained 4,692 yards on 339 receptions (13.8 YPR) last season — best among SEC skill players. Florida’s defense allowed 12.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Ole Miss Offensive Stats & Trends
Ole Miss Skill Players have averaged 20.2 yards per reception (1,053 yards/52 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.8
Ole Miss Skill Players have averaged 20.2 yards per reception (1,053 yards/52 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.9
Ole Miss Skill Players have averaged 20.2 yards per reception (1,053 yards/52 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 12.2
Ole Miss Skill Players have 22 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– most among Power Conference Teams
Ole Miss WRs have averaged 21.6 yards per reception (801 yards/37 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 13.3
Florida Offensive Stats & Trends
Florida have averaged just 8.3 yards per completion (425 yards/51 completions) on 3rd down this season– 5th-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.8
Florida Skill Players have averaged just 8.4 yards per reception (251 yards/30 catches) on 3rd and long this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 13.2
Florida Skill Players have averaged just 8.4 yards per reception (361 yards/43 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 12.2
Florida Skill Players averaged just 16.0 receptions per game (208/13) last season– 3rd-worst among SEC Teams; Average: 18.9
Florida RBs rushed for 11 TDs in the 4th quarter last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Ole Miss Defensive Stats & Trends
Ole Miss allowed 7 rushing TDs on 456 carries (65.1 Carries Per TD) last season– best in the SEC; Average: 29.9
Ole Miss tackled opponents for a loss on 15 of 51 rushing attempts (29% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 15%.
Ole Miss allowed 7 rushing TDs on 456 carries (65.1 Carries Per TD) last season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 23.2
Ole Miss tackled opponents for a loss on 112 of 456 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) last season– best in FBS; Average: 16%.
Ole Miss tackled opponents for a loss on 112 of 456 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.
Florida Defensive Stats & Trends
Florida defense allowed 55 completions for 20 or more yards last season– most in the SEC
Florida opponents averaged 7.8 Passing Attempts per TD (31 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– T-2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0
Florida opponents averaged 7.8 Passing Attempts per TD (31 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: 3.9
Florida allowed 55 receptions for 20+ yards last season– most in the SEC
Florida intercepted 3 of 325 attempts (108.3 pass attempts per int.) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 36.7
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