USC vs Wisconsin Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 8

• The USC Trojans are a -2.5 point favorite vs. the Wisconsin Badgers
• USC vs. Wisconsin Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
• TV Channel: NBC | PEAC

USC (6-1) visit Camp Randall Stadium to take on Wisconsin (4-2) on Oct. 24 in Madison, WI. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 pm.

The USC Trojans are betting favorites in Week 8, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-130).

The USC vs. Wisconsin Over/Under is 49.5 total points.

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USC vs. Wisconsin Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

USC vs Wisconsin Prediction:

The winning team model predicts USC will win this game with 54.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the USC Trojans and the Wisconsin Badgers, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

USC vs Wisconsin Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts USC will cover the spread with 53.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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USC Best Bets Today

• USC has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.10 Units / 4% ROI)
• USC has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.70 Units / 33% ROI)
• USC has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• USC has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• USC has hit the Team Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.60 Units / 10% ROI)

Wisconsin Best Bets Today

• Wisconsin has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+5.95 Units / 18% ROI)
• Wisconsin has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 40% ROI)
• Wisconsin has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 38% ROI)
• Wisconsin have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
• Wisconsin have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.70 Units / 46% ROI)

USC Against the Spread (ATS) Record

USC Trojans is 2-5 against the spread this college football season (-3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI).

• USC is 5-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 4.12% ROI
• USC is 4-3 when betting the Over for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
• USC is 3-4 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI

Wisconsin Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Wisconsin Badgers is 3-3 against the spread this college football season (-0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI).

• Wisconsin is 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.15 Units / 11.09% ROI
• Wisconsin is 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -4.51% ROI
• Wisconsin is 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.25 Units / -3.82% ROI

USC: Keys to the Game vs. Wisconsin

USC is 14-3 (.824) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2024 season– T-19th-best in FBS; Average: .620

USC is 8-4 (.667) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2024 season– T-13th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .489

USC is undefeated (9-0) when not throwing an interception since the 2024 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .735

USC is 11-2 (.846) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2024 season– 13th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .672

Wisconsin: Keys to the Game vs. USC

Wisconsin was winless (0-5) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .498

Wisconsin was winless (0-5) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .481

Wisconsin is winless (0-10) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .451

Wisconsin is winless (0-8) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .507

Matchup Notes for USC vs. Wisconsin

Wisconsin’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on just 6.2% of 272 attempts last season — T-4th-worst among FBS offenses. USC’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.1% of attempts last season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin gained 1,637 yards on 157 receptions (just 10.4 YPR) last season — T-3rd-worst among Big Ten skill players. USC’s defense allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin’s WRs gained 1,001 yards on 90 receptions (just 11.1 YPR) last season — T-4th-worst among Power 5 WRs. USC’s defense allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.

USC’s WRs has averaged 14.0 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 5th-best among Big Ten WRs. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 9.5 RAC to TEs since the 2024 season — T-19th-best among FBS defenses.

USC has averaged 12.6 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-25th-best among FBS skill players. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 10.6 RAC since the 2024 season — T-14th-best among FBS defenses.

USC has averaged 12.6 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 4th-best among Big Ten skill players. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 10.6 RAC since the 2024 season — T-14th-best among FBS defenses.

USC Offensive Stats & Trends

USC TEs gained no yards on 1 catches (0.0 YPR) on 3rd and long last season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.0

USC TEs had no touchdowns on 33 receptions last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 9.6

USC WRs caught 9 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter last season– most among Big Ten Teams

USC WRs caught 9 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter last season– most among FBS Teams

USC TEs had no touchdowns on 5 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

Wisconsin Offensive Stats & Trends

Wisconsin TEs have averaged 23.2 yards per reception (139 yards/6 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2024 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.4

Wisconsin Skill Players averaged 21.5 yards per reception (86 yards/4 catches) on 3rd and short last season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 8.5

Wisconsin Skill Players have averaged 24.8 yards per reception (198 yards/8 catches) in close and late situations this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.0

Wisconsin WRs have caught just 2 of 12 passes (17% Reception Pct) in close and late situations this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%

Wisconsin WRs averaged 24.7 yards per reception (222 yards/9 catches) in short yardage situations last season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.7

USC Defensive Stats & Trends

USC has allowed opponents to catch 19 of 24 passes (79% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 51%

USC has allowed a Completion Pct of 68% (19 completions/28 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 49%

USC tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 33 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.

USC allowed 4.4 touchdowns per interception (31 TDs allowed, and 7 INT) in the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.7

USC has allowed opponents to catch 19 of 24 passes (79% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%

Wisconsin Defensive Stats & Trends

Wisconsin opponents has averaged 8.5 Passing Attempts per TD (17 Pass Attempts/2 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 3.7

Wisconsin intercepted 4 of 323 attempts (80.8 pass attempts per int.) last season– 2nd-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 36.1

Wisconsin opponents has averaged 59.7 Passing Attempts per TD (179 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) this season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 21.3

Wisconsin did not record a sack (39 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.2

Wisconsin has tackled opponents for a loss on just 20 of 218 rushing attempts (9% TFL%) this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 15%.

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