Utah State vs San Diego State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

• The Utah State Aggies are a -2.5 point favorite vs. the San Diego State Aztecs
• Utah State vs. San Diego State Total (Over/Under): 42.5 points
• TV Channel: USA

Utah State (4-5) visit Snapdragon Stadium to take on San Diego State (4-5) on Nov. 14 in San Diego, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:30 pm.

The Utah State Aggies are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).

The Utah State vs. San Diego State Over/Under is 42.5 total points.

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Utah State vs. San Diego State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Utah State vs San Diego State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Utah State will win this game with 53.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Utah State Aggies and the San Diego State Aztecs, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Utah State vs San Diego State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Utah State will cover the spread with 52.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Utah State Best Bets Today

• Utah State has hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 61% ROI)
• Utah State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.55 Units / 57% ROI)
• Utah State has hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.50 Units / 30% ROI)
• Utah State have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.60 Units / 25% ROI)
• Utah State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.60 Units / 18% ROI)

San Diego State Best Bets Today

• San Diego State has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+5.75 Units / 53% ROI)
• San Diego State have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
• San Diego State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.30 Units / 15% ROI)
• San Diego State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.75 Units / 19% ROI)
• San Diego State have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.55 Units / 17% ROI)

Utah State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Utah State Aggies is 5-3 against the spread this college football season (+1.7 Units / 17.17% ROI).

• Utah State is 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.2 Units / -35.03% ROI
• Utah State is 1-8 when betting the Over for -7.77 Units / -78.72% ROI
• Utah State is 8-1 when betting the Under for +6.9 Units / 69.49% ROI

San Diego State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

San Diego State Aztecs is 3-6 against the spread this college football season (-3.6 Units / -36.55% ROI).

• San Diego State is 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 7.34% ROI
• San Diego State is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
• San Diego State is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI

Utah State: Keys to the Game vs. San Diego State

Utah State was winless (0-6) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .536

Utah State was 2-8 (.200) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-20th-worst in FBS; Average: .418

Utah State was 3-7 (.300) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-29th-worst in FBS; Average: .481

Utah State was 2-8 (.200) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-10th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .385

San Diego State: Keys to the Game vs. Utah State

San Diego State was 1-9 (.100) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-9th-worst in FBS; Average: .422

San Diego State was 1-9 (.100) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-6th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .372

San Diego State was winless (0-6) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .477

San Diego State is 3-8 (.273) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2024 season– 34th-worst in FBS; Average: .409

Matchup Notes for Utah State vs. San Diego State

San Diego State’s QBs threw for 2,050 passing yards in 13 games (just 157.7 YPG) last season — 16th-worst among FBS teams. Utah State’s defense allowed 258.8 passing yards per game last season — 12th-worst among FBS defenses.

San Diego State’s offense threw for 2,050 passing yards in 13 games (just 157.7 YPG) last season — 13th-worst among FBS offenses. Utah State’s defense allowed 258.8 passing yards per game last season — 12th-worst among FBS defenses.

San Diego State has 534 receptions in 34 games (just 15.7 per game) since the 2024 season — 21st-worst among FBS skill players. Utah State’s defense has allowed 22.1 receptions per game since the 2024 season — worst among NonP5 defenses.

Utah State averaged 13.0 yards after the catch last season — best among Pac-12 skill players. San Diego State’s defense allowed just 9.6 RAC last season — T-3rd-best among NonP5 defenses.

Utah State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 11.7% of 403 attempts last season — T-29th-best among FBS offenses. San Diego State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 5.3% of attempts last season — 2nd-best among NonP5 defenses.

Utah State gained 2,862 yards on 221 receptions (13.0 YPR) last season — T-27th-best among FBS skill players. San Diego State’s defense allowed just 9.6 Yards Per Reception last season — 2nd-best among NonP5 defenses.

Utah State Offensive Stats & Trends

Utah State TEs were targeted 11.9 times per game (143/12) last season– 2nd-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1

Utah State TEs were targeted 47 times in the 1st quarter last season– T-most among FBS Teams

Utah State averaged 13.0 yards after the catch last season — best among Pac-12 skill players. San Diego State’s defense allowed just 9.6 RAC last season — T-3rd-best among NonP5 defenses.

Utah State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 11.7% of 403 attempts last season — T-29th-best among FBS offenses. San Diego State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 5.3% of attempts last season — 2nd-best among NonP5 defenses.

Utah State RBs were targeted 4 times in the 1st quarter last week– most among FBS Teams

San Diego State Offensive Stats & Trends

San Diego State RBs have not rushed for a 0 TD on 79 carries (inf Carries Per TD) in close and late situations since the 2024 season– T-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 22.7

San Diego State gained 40+ yards on 13 of their 166 receptions (8%) last season– 6th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 4%

San Diego State’s QBs threw for 2,050 passing yards in 13 games (just 157.7 YPG) last season — 16th-worst among FBS teams. Utah State’s defense allowed 258.8 passing yards per game last season — 12th-worst among FBS defenses.

San Diego State threw 0 TDs on 55 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter last season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.9

San Diego State Skill Players had no touchdowns on 10 receptions in close and late situations last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.8

Utah State Defensive Stats & Trends

Utah State allowed 20 first down receptions in the Red Zone last season– most in FBS

Utah State allowed 20 first down receptions in the Red Zone last season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Utah State opponents has averaged 40.2 Passing Attempts per TD (322 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) this season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 20.0

Utah State has allowed just 9.6 yards per completion (1,929 yards/201 completions) this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.7

Utah State had no interceptions and 19 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 9.4

San Diego State Defensive Stats & Trends

San Diego State allowed a Completion Pct of 75% (21 completions/28 attempts) in the Red Zone last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%

San Diego State has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 25 of 383 carries (7%) this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 13%

San Diego State forced 4 fumbles on 509 carries (127.2 Carries Per Fumble) last season– 4th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 45.7

San Diego State has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 66 of 841 carries (8%) since the 2024 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 13%

San Diego State allowed 9 rushing TDs on 458 carries (50.9 Carries Per TD) last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 22.1

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