Western Michigan vs Buffalo Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 5

• The Western Michigan Broncos are a -15.5 point favorite vs. the Buffalo
• Western Michigan vs. Buffalo Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
• TV Channel: ESPN+

Western Michigan (2-2) visit Broadview Stadium to take on Buffalo (2-2) on Oct. 3 in Buffalo, NY. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 pm.

The Western Michigan Broncos are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -15.5 (+105).

The Western Michigan vs. Buffalo Over/Under is 48.5 total points.

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Western Michigan vs. Buffalo Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Western Michigan vs Buffalo Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Western Michigan will win this game with 76.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Western Michigan Broncos and the Buffalo, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Western Michigan vs Buffalo Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Western Michigan will cover the spread with 53.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Western Michigan Best Bets Today

• Western Michigan has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• Western Michigan has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.50 Units / 29% ROI)
• Western Michigan has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.00 Units / 29% ROI)
• Western Michigan have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.58 Units / 25% ROI)
• Western Michigan has hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.40 Units / 16% ROI)

Buffalo Best Bets Today

• Buffalo has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
• Buffalo has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.55 Units / 35% ROI)
• Buffalo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.80 Units / 51% ROI)
• Buffalo has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.75 Units / 25% ROI)

Western Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Western Michigan Broncos is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.22 Units / -4.98% ROI).

• Western Michigan is 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
• Western Michigan is 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.22 Units / -4.98% ROI
• Western Michigan is 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.57% ROI

Buffalo Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Buffalo is 0-4 against the spread this college football season (-4.48 Units / -100% ROI).

• Buffalo is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 2.33% ROI
• Buffalo is 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.38% ROI
• Buffalo is 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.32 Units / -52.49% ROI

Western Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. Buffalo

Western Michigan was 2-6 (.250) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-29th-worst in FBS; Average: .420

Western Michigan is 7-1 (.875) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2024 season– T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .565

Western Michigan is 10-4 (.714) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2024 season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .554

Western Michigan was 3-7 (.300) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .454

Buffalo: Keys to the Game vs. Western Michigan

Buffalo was 6-2 (.750) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-8th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .470

Buffalo was 8-1 (.889) when allowing less than 3 sacks last season– T-4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .583

Buffalo was 9-3 (.750) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .602

Buffalo was undefeated (8-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .612

Matchup Notes for Western Michigan vs. Buffalo

Buffalo’s RBs averaged just 5.8 yards after the catch last season — T-18th-worst among FBS RBs. Western Michigan’s defense allowed 9.2 RAC to RBs last season — T-23rd-worst among FBS defenses.

Buffalo’s WRs had 1.5 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-20th-best among FBS WRs. Western Michigan’s defense allowed just 1.0 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-5th-best among NonP5 defenses.

Buffalo’s WRs had 1.5 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-20th-best among FBS WRs. Western Michigan’s defense allowed just 1.0 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-15th-best among FBS defenses.

Western Michigan’s offense threw for 1,939 passing yards in 14 games (just 138.5 YPG) last season — 7th-worst among FBS offenses. Buffalo’s defense allowed just 194.3 passing yards per game last season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.

Western Michigan’s QBs threw for 1,939 passing yards in 14 games (just 138.5 YPG) last season — 9th-worst among FBS teams. Buffalo’s defense allowed just 194.3 passing yards per game last season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.

Western Michigan’s WRs had 113 receptions in 14 games (just 8.1 per game) last season — 15th-worst among FBS WRs. Buffalo’s defense allowed just 16.4 receptions per game last season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.

Western Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends

Western Michigan threw 0 TDs on 29 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) last week– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 17.8

Western Michigan have averaged just 8.6 yards per completion (462 yards/54 completions) on 3rd down since the 2024 season– 3rd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.9

Western Michigan’s offense threw for 1,939 passing yards in 14 games (just 138.5 YPG) last season — 7th-worst among FBS offenses. Buffalo’s defense allowed just 194.3 passing yards per game last season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.

Western Michigan have averaged just 6.6 yards per completion (92 yards/14 completions) on 3rd down this season– 2nd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 12.1

Western Michigan Skill Players averaged just 8.8 yards per reception (237 yards/27 catches) on 3rd and long last season– 4th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9

Buffalo Offensive Stats & Trends

Buffalo QBs have fumbled 6 times this season– T-most among FBS Teams

Buffalo TEs have no touchdowns on 32 receptions since the 2024 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.2

Buffalo RBs carried the ball 9 times on 3rd down last week– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Buffalo Skill Players have averaged just 6.2 yards per reception (277 yards/45 catches) in the 1st half this season– 2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.4

Buffalo’s RBs averaged just 5.8 yards after the catch last season — T-18th-worst among FBS RBs. Western Michigan’s defense allowed 9.2 RAC to RBs last season — T-23rd-worst among FBS defenses.

Western Michigan Defensive Stats & Trends

Western Michigan has tackled opponents for a loss on just 10 of 155 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) this season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

Western Michigan has tackled opponents for a loss on just 10 of 155 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.

Western Michigan sacked opposing QBs on 11% of pass attempts (43/387) last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Western Michigan tackled opponents for a loss on just 65 of 500 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) last season– 29th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.

Western Michigan has sacked opposing QBs on 9% of pass attempts (46/496) since the 2024 season– T-3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 6%

Buffalo Defensive Stats & Trends

Buffalo did not record a sack (31 pass attempts) last week– T-worst in FBS; Average: 12.8

Buffalo has allowed opponents to catch just 69 of 131 passes (53% Reception Pct) this season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 63%

Buffalo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% (6 completions/18 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

Buffalo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 52% (69 completions/134 attempts) this season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%

Buffalo allowed opponents to catch just 13 of 31 passes (42% Reception Pct) last week– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 63%

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