This Big 12 Quarterback Is Quietly Moving Up the Heisman Table

As regular readers know, I pay close attention to the Heisman Trophy odds market. When movements happen, I am among the first people in the online sports betting world to notice.

This week, I picked up on an interesting late-July adjustment. A noteworthy quarterback is moving up the board into midrange territory. 

That quarterback is Will Hammond – the only Big 12 player currently shorter than 50-to-1 at BetMGM. And while Hammond accounted for only 0.1% of all Heisman bets as of July 22, recent market activity has led to an adjustment down from +5000 to +3000.

Hammond is a fascinating figure of the 2026 offseason. He’s played well in backup duty for Texas Tech over the last two seasons, including a strong performance late in the game at Utah last September. And with multi-year starter Behren Morton drafted by the Patriots in April, the job was ready to go to Hammond.

The only problem? Hammond tore his ACL in a Week 9 game at Oklahoma State, and he’s been rehabbing all offseason. Will he be ready to go on Sept. 5?

One of the prevailing thoughts for closer observers of the Texas Tech program is that head coach Joey McGuire may not have opted to bring in a transfer option like Brendan Sorsby if Hammond was healthy and ready to go for Week 1. 

For his part, Hammond says he was “cleared by the surgeon three weeks ago” and he “gives it a high chance” that he’s available for Week 1. Personally, these sound like the kind of mushy answers you give if you’re still rehabbing hard and have no idea what the return date might be. But at the end of the day, I’m just as in the dark as everyone else. 

In the context of the Heisman race, the reason I think all this matters is his likely path to award contention. Hammond is not a household name, and he’s not playing at a “premium” program – the kind that’s likely to spawn friendly media coverage that buttresses a major Heisman run. He’s not playing in the Big Ten or SEC, so an undefeated season wouldn’t guarantee dramatic wins against highly-ranked opponents. 

What would it take for a mostly unknown Texas Tech quarterback to win the Heisman? It would probably necessitate huge stats, an undefeated 13-0 record, and a heroic moment or two in unexpectedly tricky road games. 

Maybe more importantly, the public would need to see Hammond as a critical piece driving Texas Tech’s success – unlike Morton, who was seen as more of a game manager.

It will be difficult for Hammond to accomplish these component parts if he’s not available for games in September. He’s got to be on the field for the Week 3 conference opener against Houston, or I just don’t see a path to the Heisman Trophy.

I think Hammond gives Texas Tech a higher offensive ceiling than Morton did, which makes Texas Tech football odds an intriguing target in this year’s playoff market. But a Heisman candidate? Right now, I don’t see it – especially at a shortening price. 

Will Hammond @ +3000