6 College Football Week 1 Early Bets to Consider

Last week, I wrote about some of the college football futures bets I like with the season roughly six weeks away.

While July is sort of the perfect time for college football win totals and other futures, it can also be worth your while to actually lock in Week 1 straight bets, too. In July, many of the sportsbook’s college football spreads are mostly untouched, with many bettors not even thinking about college football. 

That can all start to change in August, as bets flood in and the market shifts. By betting early, you can get good numbers before they change. Securing those key numbers can make the difference on the margin between a winning season and a losing one.

Here are six bets to consider making early to potentially secure some closing line value.

TCU vs. North Carolina (+6.5)

This game is the big Week 0 draw in Dublin for 2026. It’s also a rematch of last year’s Week 1 contest, where TCU drubbed the Heels 48-14 in head coach Bill Belichick’s college debut. 

I don’t see much reason to expect a different outcome. Dublin has been fertile soil for dogs, but TCU is a far better team at the line of scrimmage. It should also remain quite good at quarterback, with Jaden Craig coming down from Harvard after making the Ivy League’s all-conference team in 2025. (Spare me the jokes about how he won’t struggle to learn the offense.)

Trendlines for this game also favor TCU. The Horned Frogs are 6-1 straight up (5-2 ATS) in their last seven games against ACC opponents. I am a Belichick/UNC skeptic, so I’m not expecting huge growth for North Carolina in Year 2. I want this number under seven, which is why I’m ready to buy in right now. 

Prediction: TCU -6.5

USC vs. Fresno State (+23.5)

If you read my aforementioned futures breakdown from last week, you already know I’ve bought up every 2026 Fresno State position I can get my hands on.

If not, I’ll give you the shortened version – Fresno State has former North Dakota State coach Matt Entz at the helm, and he’s in Year 2 of turning Fresno into a west-coast version of NDSU from the late 2010s. 

Fresno is going to shock some people this year, and this game will provide an early opportunity. Not only is it a key chance for the new Pac-12 to earn some respect against a major brand, but it’s also a major contrast of styles – Entz’s power game against Lincoln Riley’s finesse Southern California offense.

As is often the case, be prepared for the finesse team to get exposed, to one degree or another, by the power team. 

I think the ball-knowers out there are going to find all the Fresno numbers by Week 1, so I want to buy into this number ASAP. That means getting Fresno on the right side of +21, since I could see this closing at Fresno State +20. I’ll eventually grab some moneyline exposure, too. 

Prediction: Fresno State +23.5

Ole Miss vs. Louisville (+6.5)

If ever a team was the victim of brand discrimination, it’s Ole Miss. This is an SEC team that played in the national semifinals last year and brings back a veteran quarterback who’s a Heisman Trophy front-runner … yet Ole Miss football odds aren’t even down to a full touchdown favorite against a good-not-great ACC team?

If the team jersey said Georgia on the front, I honestly think this point spread would be closer to -15. Instead, you can get Ole Miss to beat Louisville in Nashville at -6.5. And obviously, I want it under the -7. 

Prediction: Ole Miss -6.5

LSU vs. Clemson (+11.5)

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a college sports program undeservedly hang on to an outdated reputation quite like Clemson football. This is a team that has failed to make the College Football Playoff in the ACC in four of the last five seasons, yet they’re regularly handicapped every September like they’re still duking it out against Alabama for national titles.

Let’s make that reality officially observable via stats and trends. Clemson is 1-5 ATS in its last six games against SEC opponents and 2-7 ATS in its last nine openers. So, yes, Clemson is being handicapped like it’s 2018, rather than 2026. 

As for the LSU side of this game, the Tigers will have a lot of energy during the first six weeks of this season simply because they went out and got a first-rate coach and a first-rate college quarterback. They’re going to take a ton of money in this game – perhaps more than any other favorite I mention in this article.

If you want to pass on a double-digit number in Week 1, I totally get that. But this is a chance to fade the market’s continued wishy-washyness on Dabo Swinney and Clemson, which I like. And since this could easily go to -13.5 or -14, I think it’s worth taking a piece of this now.

Prediction: LSU -11.5

Florida State vs. SMU (-1.5)

Florida State gets a warm-up game against New Mexico State before playing a Week 1 conference tilt against SMU. And it’s a home dog?

I know it’s en vogue to mock the Seminoles and Mike Norvell after a couple down years, but I think this is an overcorrection. I’ll make a prediction that Florida State football odds close around -2.5 for this game, so I’ll grab some +1.5 while it’s available. 

As a bonus, you can consider the under, too – Florida State is 17-5 to the under in its last 22 games where the Noles played as a dog. 

Prediction: Florida State +1.5

Troy vs. Sam Houston (+17.5)

Considering the teams in play, I think line movement is less of a concern here than in other games in this article. Nevertheless, I did want to bet into this market to secure the good +17.5 number. 

Troy is the better team here, and the Trojans will likely win the game. The issue is that the number is probably a big aggressive, considering we’re talking about a good team playing a meh team in Week 1. 

Trendlines to know: Troy is 0-4 ATS in its last four openers. Sam Houston is 2-1 ATS in its first road game as an FBS member. 

That tells me a couple of things. One is that Troy is a known good program that’s being priced as too big of a favorite as a result; the other is that Sam Houstin is being slightly underpriced, potentially because of its status as a new FBS team. 

Prediction: Sam Houston +17.5