• The Phillies are -190 favorites vs the Astros
• Astros vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
• Astros / Phillies TV Channel: WCAU | SCHN | NSPA

The Houston Astros (+155) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-190) on September 10, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 pm in Philadelphia, PA.

This season, the Astros are 74-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 61-84 ATS.

Astros vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:

• Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier 2-5, 5.99 ERA
• Phillies starting pitcher: Zack Wheeler 12-5, 3.26 ERA

Astros vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Astros vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 57.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Astros vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:

• Cam Smith has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+18.30 Units / 183% ROI)
• Christian Walker has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.30 Units / 30% ROI)
• Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+11.75 Units / 40% ROI)
• Christian Walker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.20 Units / 29% ROI)
• Cam Smith has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.80 Units / 32% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.80 Units / 40% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+13.60 Units / 170% ROI)
• Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+11.50 Units / 44% ROI)
• Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+10.45 Units / 22% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)

Astros Best Bets Today:

• The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 45 games (+12.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 away games (+11.95 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.15 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 45 away games (+6.05 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.45 Units / 23% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 24 games (+10.80 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+9.70 Units / 52% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 24 games (+7.80 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games (+4.90 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+4.15 Units / 38% ROI)

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Astros are 75-71 against the Run Line (-0.65 Units / -0.33% ROI).

• 74-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.7 Units / -4.4% ROI
• 73-64 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.6 Units / 0.99% ROI
• 64-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.1 Units / -10.1% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 61-84 against the Run Line (-28.15 Units / -16.51% ROI).

• 82-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.75 Units / -0.34% ROI
• 66-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -13 Units / -8.08% ROI
• 72-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.05 Units / -0.03% ROI

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Astros are 12-5 (.706) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB.

The Astros are 64-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB.

The Astros are 55-4 (.932) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB.

The Astros were just 5-13 (.278) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Phillies are 15-51 (.227) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB.

The Phillies are 7-57 (.109) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB.

The Phillies are 46-6 (.885) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Phillies are 11-55 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Astros Hitting Stats & Trends

29% of Astros hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB.

Astros hitters have an OPS of .730 (2,753 PA’s) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB.

Astros hitters have drawn walks in 13% of their PA’s with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB.

Astros hitters have chased 32% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB.

Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends

Phillies hitters have an OPS of just .661 (2,706 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

Phillies hitters are slugging just .365 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Phillies hitters are slugging just .248 with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of just .485 (2,951 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Astros Pitching Stats & Trends

Astros pitchers have walked 11% of batters this season — tied for highest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Astros pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Astros pitchers have walked 11% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB.

The Astros have allowed 3.08 runs per game (449/146) in the first 5 innings this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Phillies pitchers this season — best in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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