Dodgers vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 4

Houston Astros' Jeremy Pena reacts after flying out during the seventh inning of Game 1 of the baseball AL Championship Series against the Texas Rangers Sunday, Oct. 15, 2023, in Houston.
(AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
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  • The Dodgers are -210 favorites vs the Astros
  • Dodgers vs Astros Over / Under today: 9 Runs
  • Dodgers / Astros TV Channel: SNLA | SCHN

The Los Angeles Dodgers (-210) visit Daikin Park to take on the Houston Astros (+170) on May 4, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 pm in Houston, TX.

This season, the Dodgers are 21-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 14-21 ATS.

Dodgers vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Dodgers starting pitcher: Yoshinobu Yamamoto 2-2, 2.90 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Steven Okert 0-0, 4.20 ERA

Dodgers vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Dodgers-1.5 -130O 9 -120-210
Astros +1.5 +105U 9 +100+170

Dodgers vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Monday‘s MLB game with 59.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Dodgers Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.95 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Shohei Ohtani has hit the Walks Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.55 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Freddie Freeman has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.20 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Alex Freeland has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.05 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Alex Freeland has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+8.40 Units / 28% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+13.80 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+11.95 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Jose Altuve has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.95 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Brice Matthews has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+9.80 Units / 163% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 35 away games (+8.60 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 35 away games (+6.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games (+6.15 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 35 away games (+5.10 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 24 games at home (+11.20 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+9.90 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+6.95 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+2.05 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 14 games at home (+1.00 Units / 6% ROI)

Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Dodgers are 16-18 against the Run Line (-2.95 Units / -7.29% ROI).

  • 21-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.15 Units / -7.4% ROI
  • 15-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.15 Units / -16.36% ROI
  • 19-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.45 Units / 6.59% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Astros are 14-21 against the Run Line (-9.6 Units / -21.45% ROI).

  • 14-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.2 Units / -23.56% ROI
  • 23-11 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.4 Units / 26.5% ROI
  • 11-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.1 Units / -37.3% ROI

Astros vs Dodgers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Yes
Shohei Ohtani +220
Yordan Alvarez +310
Max Muncy +340
Teoscar Hernandez +360
Christian Walker +400

Astros vs Dodgers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Freddie Freeman 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Shohei Ohtani 0.5 -235 0.5 +175
Yordan Alvarez 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
Teoscar Hernandez 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Carlos Correa 0.5 -190 0.5 +140

Astros vs Dodgers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Hyeseong Kim 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
Andy Pages 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Will Smith 0.5 -235 0.5 +175
Carlos Correa 0.5 -235 0.5 +175
Freddie Freeman 0.5 -190 0.5 +140

Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Dodgers are 3-10 (.231) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .111.

The Dodgers are 5-68 (.068) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2025 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .045.

The Dodgers are 50-13 (.794) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .636.

The Dodgers are 6-3 (.667) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season Today, they face the Astros (sixth in runs scored).

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers

The Astros are 31-23 (.574) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2025 season Today, they face the Dodgers (fifth in runs scored).

The Astros are just 1-7 (.125) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season Today, they face Dodgers (first in runs allowed).

The Astros are just 1-13 (.071) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.

The Astros are just 0-19 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .111.

Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .773 (5,453 PA’s) against RHP since the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Dodgers are batting .291 on the road this season — best in MLB.

Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .791 (975 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Dodgers hitters have an OBP of .365 (656 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB.

Astros hitters have an OBP of .435 (147 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB.

The Astros are batting .289 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Astros are batting .357 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB.

Astros hitters have put just 31% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

Dodgers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Dodgers pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Dodgers pitchers since the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB.

Dodgers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB.

Astros pitchers have walked 14% of batters this season — highest in MLB.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 5.75 (305.1 IP) this season — highest in MLB.

Astros pitchers have walked 13% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 6.17 (160.1 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.