Guardians vs. White Sox Prediction: Game 4 ALDS Preview

The Chicago White Sox can advance to the next round with a win over the Cleveland Guardians in Game 4 of the ALDS at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago on TBS. The White Sox haven’t clinched a playoff series at home since 1906.

Get my Guardians vs. White Sox prediction based on the latest MLB odds:

Guardians vs. White Sox Prediction: Game 4 ALDS

• Guardians F5 moneyline

I like the Guardians to grab an early lead, especially given their pitching advantage.

Parker Messick will get his second ALDS start for Cleveland. He made one costly mistake in Game 1, allowing two runs on four hits across 4 1/3 innings.

Messick, a 25-year-old lefty, is someone worth backing after a sensational rookie season. He finished 12-9 with a 2.56 ERA in 32 starts, whiffing 193 batters in 186 1/3 innings. Messick went 2-1 with a 2.81 ERA in four regular-season starts against the White Sox.

In Game 1, Messick got 14 swings and misses thanks to some extra heat on his fastball. He averaged 96.3 mph with his four-seamer, 1.9 mph more than his regular-season average.

The White Sox will counter with Hagen Smith, another talented left-handed rookie pitcher. I’m even more bullish on the former No. 5 overall pick in the 2024 draft.

However, this will be the third time the Guardians face Smith in four games. They should be very familiar with their scouting report on him, which could help them start fast.

Smith is also pitching on back-to-back days after throwing 21 pitches in Game 3. He’s pitched on consecutive days only once in the regular season, surrendering a walk-off home run to Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong on Aug. 17.

The White Sox will quickly call to their bullpen behind Smith, who has a 5.5-outs prop. So the Guardians need to take an early lead.

Prediction: Guardians F5 moneyline

Guardians vs. White Sox Odds: ALDS, Game 4

• Guardians moneyline: -118
• White Sox moneyline: -102
• Total: 7