• The Mariners are -105 favorites vs the Guardians
• Mariners vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
• Mariners / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | MRTV

The Seattle Mariners (-105) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-115) on June 28, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 pm in Cleveland, OH.

This season, the Mariners are 42-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 40-42 ATS.

Mariners vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:

• Mariners starting pitcher: Emerson Hancock 5-4, 3.62 ERA
• Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams 9-4, 3.82 ERA

Mariners vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mariners vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:

• Colt Emerson has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+16.40 Units / 205% ROI)
• Cal Raleigh has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.30 Units / 35% ROI)
• Cal Raleigh has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.80 Units / 56% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford has hit the Walks Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+13.60 Units / 47% ROI)
• Cal Raleigh has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.50 Units / 42% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.30 Units / 27% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.70 Units / 32% ROI)
• Gavin Williams has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.90 Units / 47% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 25 games at home (+8.80 Units / 35% ROI)
• Patrick Bailey has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+8.00 Units / 18% ROI)

Mariners Best Bets Today:

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 25 games (+14.60 Units / 51% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 54% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 63% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 30 away games (+4.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 30 games (+0.95 Units / 2% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.60 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 45 games (+6.95 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.35 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.60 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+3.40 Units / 28% ROI)

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 32-52 against the Run Line (-10.9 Units / -12.41% ROI).

• 42-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.3 Units / -11.66% ROI
• 39-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.95 Units / -7.51% ROI
• 42-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.7 Units / -0.76% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 40-42 against the Run Line (-5.05 Units / -4.69% ROI).

• 43-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.7 Units / 2.76% ROI
• 39-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.95 Units / -9.87% ROI
• 44-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.65 Units / 0.71% ROI

Guardians vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Mariners are just 8-20 (.286) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season Today, they face the Guardians (30th in runs scored).

The Mariners are just 7-16 (.304) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season Today, they face Guardians (eighth in runs allowed).

The Mariners are 9-5 (.643) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mariners are just 1-33 (.029) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Guardians are just 1-30 (.032) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .140.

The Guardians are 13-2 (.867) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .698.

The Guardians are just 1-37 (.026) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .058.

The Guardians are 32-3 (.914) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .795.

Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends

The Mariners are batting just .205 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Mariners hitters have an OPS of just .612 (917 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .290 (917 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .322 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends

The Guardians are batting just .218 on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters have an OBP of just .274 (356 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .363 this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .344 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends

Mariners pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — best in MLB.

Mariners pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of 67% this season — highest in MLB.

Mariners pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB.

Mariners pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 70% of opposing batters this season — highest in MLB.

Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% in late innings this season — best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 2.73 (171.2 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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