The Miami Marlins have a win total of 72.5 entering the 2026 season at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
Marlins Over/Under Wins 2026
- Over 72.5 wins: -110
- Under 72.5 wins: -110
Marlins Win Total Prediction 2026
- Pass at current value
When the 2026 MLB win totals market was released, the Marlins under was my favorite prediction. However, Miami’s win total has dropped by three games from that opening line, making the current value of 72.5 a pass for me.
The case for the under earlier this winter was pretty straightforward. Miami’s win total had jumped by 13.5 compared to last year’s over/under, making one of the biggest increases in the preseason win totals market.
The market started higher on the Marlins following their 79-win campaign. Yet the Marlins posted a Pythagorean record of 72-90 last year. The Cleveland Guardians, who finished with eight more wins than their Pythagorean record, were the only team luckier than the Marlins.
In addition, Miami had a strong finish to the year, going 17-13 for the ninth-best record in the majors over the last 30 games. During that stretch, the Marlins had three series against playoff teams.
Last but certainly not least, the Marlins took advantage of a down year for the National League East. The Philadelphia Phillies were the only team to make the playoffs, finishing 96-66 to win the division. No other team won more than 83 games.
Looking ahead to 2026, two NL East teams have a win total in the 90s, and the Atlanta Braves have an over/under of 88.5 in a potential bounce-back campaign.
FanGraphs playoff odds forecast three teams to finish with 86 or more wins this year. The Marlins are expected to place fourth in the division with 75.1 victories.
The Marlins’ win total has moved in the right direction, as I expect another rebuilding season in Miami.
Marlins Win Total History
(Data from Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 62.5 | 79 | Over |
| 2024 | 77.5 | 62 | Under |
| 2023 | 76.5 | 84 | Over |
| 2022 | 76.5 | 69 | Under |
| 2021 | 70.5 | 67 | Under |
| 2020 | 23.5 | 31 | Over |
| 2019 | 63.5 | 57 | Under |
| 2018 | 63.5 | 63 | Under |
| 2017 | 76.5 | 77 | Over |
| 2016 | 78.5 | 79 | Over |
| 2015 | 81.5 | 71 | Under |
| 2014 | 69.5 | 77 | Over |
| 2013 | 63 | 62 | Under |
| 2012 | 85.5 | 69 | Under |
| 2011 | 82 | 72 | Under |
| 2010 | 81 | 80 | Under |
| 2009 | 75.5 | 87 | Over |
| 2008 | 69 | 84 | Over |
| 2007 | 78.5 | 71 | Under |
| 2006 | 67 | 78 | Over |
| 2005 | 85.5 | 83 | Under |
| 2004 | 80 | 83 | Over |
| 2003 | 74.5 | 91 | Over |
| 2002 | 80.5 | 79 | Under |
| 2001 | 80.5 | 76 | Under |
| 2000 | 66.5 | 79 | Over |
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