2026 MLB Stolen Base Leader Odds & Predictions

There is an art to stealing a base in Major League Baseball.

Sure, being fast is essential. However, players must get a good jump and take advantage of the right situations to get the best of their opponent in the basepaths.

In 2025, New York Yankees outfielder José Caballero led the majors with 49 stolen bases. José Ramírez of the Cleveland Guardians and Chandler Simpson of the Tampa Bay Rays finished in a tie for second with 44 steals.

Who will lead the way on the base paths in 2026? For that answer, take a look at the latest MLB odds and predictions for the stolen base leader market:

MLB Stolen Base Leader Odds 2026

Who Will Lead MLB in Stolen Bases for 2026?

Based on the latest MLB betting lines, Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz is the betting favorite to lead the majors in stolen bases. His +300 price tag suggests an implied probability of 25%.

It marks the second straight year that De La Cruz has started as the preseason favorite in this market. However, his -130 value last spring was much less appealing.

Last season, De La Cruz finished seventh in the majors with 37 stolen bases in 162 games. It was a steep drop off from 2024, when De La Cruz led MLB with 67 stolen bases in 160 contests.

In November, the Reds admitted that De La Cruz was playing through a left quad strain during the back half of the 2025 season. That could help explain why De La Cruz was less aggressive on the basepaths, as he only recorded 12 stolen bases after the All-Star break.

If healthy, De La Cruz deserves to be the betting favorite in this market.

Still, it’s worth noting that Ronald Acuña Jr. is the only preseason favorite to lead MLB in stolen bases over the last five years. He accomplished the feat in 2023 as a +450 favorite.

MLB Stolen Base Leader Predictions for 2026

• Victor Scott II, St. Louis Cardinals: +2000 (Pick made Jan. 29)

It’s no surprise to see that most projections favor the top two players in the initial stolen base leader odds market.

ATC, a projection system at FanGraphs, has De La Cruz and Simpson leading the majors with 41 stolen bases this year. Both players are +400 or better in this market, with no other player listed better than 7/1.

Of those two players, I’d prefer to back De La Cruz because he will play a lot more as the Reds’ franchise player. ATC projects De La Cruz to appear in 148 games, while the same projection system has Simpson playing in 110 contests.

If Simpson can maintain a regular role, he has an excellent chance to lead the majors in stolen bases as one of the fastest players in the sport. However, his wRC+ of 88 in 109 games as a rookie suggests that his bat might not be there yet.

Rather than take the +400 offering on Simpson, I’m more interested in St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Victor Scott II, who has a similar profile at +2000.

With an average sprint speed of 30.2 feet per second, Scott was tied for the second-fastest player in baseball last year. He swiped 34 bags in his first full season in the majors, generating a bWAR of 2.2 in 138 games.

The Cardinals are in a rebuild, so they have no choice but to give their younger players more playing time. Scott could have plenty of opportunities to demonstrate any offensive growth this year.

OOPSY, another projection system available at FanGraphs, has Scott finishing tied for fourth with 39 stolen bases. The three players ahead of him (Simpson, De La Cruz, and Jakob Marsee) are all 10/1 or better in this market. Scott’s value certainly stands out.

Past MLB Stolen Base Leaders

Who led MLB in Stolen Bases in 2025?

New York Yankees outfielder José Caballero led MLB in stolen bases with 49 during the 2025 season.

What is the Single-Season Record for Most Stolen Bases?

Hugh Nicol holds the single-season record for most stolen bases with 138 during the 1887 campaign. Rickey Henderson’s 130 stolen bases in 1982 is the best mark in the modern era.