2026 MLB Home Run Leader Odds & Predictions

With the 2026 MLB campaign around the corner, it won’t be long until players start launching home runs into the seats of ballparks throughout the league.

One of the more interesting statistical battles to monitor each season is which player will lead the majors in home runs.

In 2025, the title of MLB’s home run king belonged to Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh, who crushed 60 home runs after entering the year as a preseason long shot (+10000) in this market.

New York Yankees star Aaron Judge, who began as the preseason MLB betting favorite last spring, is once again atop the home run leader market in 2026. But will someone emerge out of nowhere like Raleigh did in 2025?

MLB Home Run Leader Odds 2026

Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in 2026?

Based on the latest MLB odds, Judge is a +350 favorite to lead the majors in home runs during the 2026 season. That gives him an implied probability of 22.22% to lead MLB in home runs for the third time in five seasons.

Judge was MLB’s home run king in 2024 and 2022. He launched 62 home runs in 2022 and 58 homers in 2024.

For comparison, here’s a look at Judge’s preseason odds to be MLB’s home run leader in recent years:

• 2025: +260
• 2024: +375
• 2023: +550
• 2022: +1300
• 2021: +2000

Last season marked Judge’s shortest preseason price in this market, but he finished fourth with 53 homers.

Of the three players who finished ahead of Judge, two of them began near the top of the board in this market. Shohei Ohtani, who hit 55 home runs, was +500 in the home run leader market last preseason. Kyle Schwarber was +1100 last spring before finishing with 56 homers.

Raleigh was an outlier, as he was 100/1 in this market during the preseason before clubbing 60 home runs.

Still, this market has been kind to preseason long shots in recent years, as Matt Olson was 25/1 in 2023 and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was 50/1 in 2021. It could be wise to scour the whole board before making home run leader predictions.

MLB Home Run Leader Predictions for 2026

• Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals: +6600
• Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox: +10000

Most projections have Judge leading the majors in home runs during the 2026 season. THE BAT X forecasts Judge to hit 49 home runs, three more than Ohtani, as well as six more than Schwarber and Raleigh.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that projections like Judge to be MLB’s home run king. Not only is he the betting favorite, but he was projected to lead the league in homers last year.

When making predictions for this market, however, I prefer to look down the board for potential value. Raleigh’s impressive 2025 campaign is a nice reminder that baseball doesn’t always go as planned.

As for which players might offer the most value in 2026, Munetaka Murakami (+10000) and Bobby Witt Jr. (+6600) stand out when comparing their betting odds to projections.

THE BAT X projects Murakami to hit 31 home runs in his first MLB season, trailing 10 hitters in the sport. And yet, he’s 100/1 in this market at this point in the preseason.

Murakami, who is 25 years old, will bring a lot of raw power to the Chicago White Sox in his debut season. He hit 246 home runs in his eight seasons for the Tokyo Yakult Swallows in Nippon Professional Baseball. Murakami clubbed as many as 56 homers in 2022.

The free agency market for Murakami was underwhelming this offseason due to concerns about his defense and his plate discipline. But he should get plenty of playing time for a rebuilding White Sox team, giving him a chance to flash his incredible power.

Staying in the same division, Witt could be poised for his best offensive season yet. The Royals are moving their fences in by about 10 feet this year, hoping to produce more home runs.

Witt’s best power output came in 2024, when he launched 32 home runs and finished runner-up to Judge in the AL MVP race. However, had Kauffman Stadium’s new dimensions been in place for that season, he might have finished with 40 homers.

THE BAT X’s projections added a two-homer bump to Witt following the announcement of the fence being moved. Yet his odds remained unchanged, as he’s still trading at +6600 like he was this time last year.

Past MLB Home Run Leaders

Who led MLB in Home Runs in 2025?

Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh led MLB with 60 home runs during the 2025 season.

What is the Single-Season Record for Most Home Runs?

Barry Bonds holds the single-season record for most home runs in a single season with 73 as a member of the San Francisco Giants in 2001.