2026 MLB Saves Leader Odds & Predictions

Shutting down a ninth inning is no easy task, but the best relievers in baseball are usually up for the challenge.

In 2025, Kansas City Royals closer Carlos Estévez fared better than everyone else with an MLB-leading 42 saves. He was one of my favorite value plays in last year’s market, trading at 40/1 in the preseason.

While there is no way to follow that up, here’s a look at the latest MLB betting lines and predictions for the saves leader market in 2026:

MLB Saves Leader Odds 2026

Who Will Lead MLB in Saves in 2026?

Based on the latest MLB odds, Los Angeles Dodgers closer Edwin Díaz is the preseason favorite to lead the majors in saves at +400. That gives him an implied probability of 20%.

New team, same story. Díaz, who was a member of the New York Mets last year, began as the preseason favorite in this market with a +650 price tag. He finished 11th in saves last year with 28 in 30 opportunities.

After nine seasons (six with the Mets and three with the Seattle Mariners), Díaz signed a three-year, $69 million deal to close games for the back-to-back World Series champions. The Dodgers are hoping that Díaz is the answer to their ninth-inning problems, as they were forced to turn to starter Roki Sasaki during their postseason run.

Díaz has recorded 253 saves in his MLB career, but he’s only led the majors in saves once. He notched 57 saves in 61 opportunities during his final season with the Mariners in 2018.

The unpredictability of relievers and how teams will use them is what makes this market so entertaining. MLB saves leader odds have only been tracked since 2014, but just one preseason favorite has ultimately led the majors in this category over that span.

At the same time, four of the past six relievers to lead MLB in saves were 40/1 or off the board entirely during the preseason. The last three players to lead the majors in saves were on teams that missed the playoffs.

MLB Saves Leader Predictions for 2026

• Ryan Helsley, Baltimore Orioles: +3000
• Abner Uribe, Milwaukee Brewers: +3500

As expected, most public projections have Díaz leading the majors in saves during the 2026 campaign.

OOPSY, my preferred projection system for pitchers (available at FanGraphs), projects an MLB-best 36 saves for Díaz. Both New York closers, Devin Williams of the Mets and David Bednar of the Yankees, are projected to tie for second with 33 saves.

In addition, seven other closers are forecast to record 29 saves. If projections are any indication, this could be another wide-open race.

As a result, this market is worth taking shots down the board, as anything can happen regarding relievers. Players get injured, they lose their role, or their team has fewer save opportunities than expected.

With that in mind, I like the value of Baltimore Orioles reliever Ryan Helsley (+3000) and Milwaukee Brewers reliever Abner Uribe (+3500).

Helsley finished the 2024 campaign as MLB’s saves leader, notching 49 in 66 1/3 innings of work for the St. Louis Cardinals. He had a +800 price tag to repeat last preseason, but ultimately recorded 21 saves across 56 frames.

All 21 of Helsley’s saves came in his first 36 games with the Cardinals before he was traded to the Mets and deferred to Díaz. After landing a two-year, $28 million deal with the Orioles in free agency, Helsley will almost certainly be tasked with shutting the door in the ninth inning.

For what it’s worth, I made a similar case for Estévez last spring after he signed a two-year, $22.2 million deal with the Royals that indicated he’d assume a high-leverage role.

As for Uribe, he was more of a set-up man before being thrust into a ninth-inning role following Trevor Megill’s injury. Uribe tallied five of his seven saves during the final month of the regular season. He also notched a two-inning save for the Brewers in Game 5 of the NLDS.

Given the trade rumors surrounding Megill, I think there is a chance that the Brewers are ready to give the ninth inning to Uribe. He certainly looked the part of a shutdown closer last year, pasting a 30.2% strikeout rate (91st percentile) with an average fastball velocity of 98.9 miles per hour (98th percentile).

Between the reliable veteran (Helsley) and the promising young hurler (Uribe), I feel as good as I can when trying to do the impossible and predict who will lead the majors in saves for the second straight season.

Past MLB Saves Leaders

Who led MLB in Saves in 2025?

Kansas City Royals closer Carlos Estévez recorded an MLB-leading 42 saves during the 2025 season.

What is the Single-Season Record for Most Saves?

Francisco Rodríguez holds MLB’s single-season record for most saves with 62 during the 2008 season as a member of the Los Angeles Angels.