• The Mets are -140 favorites vs the Nationals
• Mets vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Mets / Nationals TV Channel: WPIX | NATV

The New York Mets (-140) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+115) on September 25, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45 pm in Washington, DC.

This season, the Mets are 73-86 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 89-68 ATS.

Mets vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:

• Mets starting pitcher: Undecided 0-0, 0.00 ERA
• Nationals starting pitcher: Andrew Alvarez 2-6, 3.18 ERA

Mets vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mets vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s MLB game with 52.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

• Carson Benge has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+13.35 Units / 45% ROI)
• Carson Benge has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.95 Units / 41% ROI)
• Mark Vientos has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+10.25 Units / 128% ROI)
• Carson Benge has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+9.60 Units / 20% ROI)
• Carson Benge has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 away games (+9.45 Units / 38% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Daylen Lile has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+11.70 Units / 47% ROI)
• Yohandy Morales has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+10.00 Units / 125% ROI)
• Daylen Lile has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+9.80 Units / 55% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.60 Units / 35% ROI)
• Andrés Chaparro has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+8.85 Units / 44% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+11.45 Units / 43% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 30 away games (+8.95 Units / 29% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 away games (+6.75 Units / 24% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 30 away games (+6.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 away games (+4.90 Units / 15% ROI)

Nationals Best Bets Today:

• The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 50 games at home (+14.40 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 45 games at home (+11.60 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+8.80 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+7.40 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+7.20 Units / 14% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 72-85 against the Run Line (-17.5 Units / -8.74% ROI).

• 73-86 when betting on the Moneyline for -27.35 Units / -14.04% ROI
• 74-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.15 Units / -3.49% ROI
• 72-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.5 Units / -5.47% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 89-68 against the Run Line (+7.9 Units / 3.69% ROI).

• 75-84 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.3 Units / 1.34% ROI
• 83-68 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.75 Units / 5% ROI
• 68-83 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.85 Units / -13.08% ROI

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Mets are just 57-37 (.606) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Mets are 35-12 (.745) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB.

The Mets are just 12-40 (.231) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

The Mets are 20-1 (.952) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Nationals are just 59-20 (.747) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB.

The Nationals are just 36-26 (.581) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Nationals are just 16-63 (.203) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Nationals are just 1-73 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets Hitting Stats & Trends

Mets hitters have an OBP of just .309 (5,991 PA’s) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Mets are batting just .234 at home this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have 42 extra-base hits out of 153 total hits (just 28%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters are slugging just .249 with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends

Nationals hitters have 160 extra-base hits out of 419 total hits (38%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Nationals are batting .260 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB.

Nationals hitters are slugging .424 this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Nationals hitters are slugging .435 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Mets Pitching Stats & Trends

The Mets have won just 10% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Mets have won just 26% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .283 against Mets pitchers with runners on base this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games on the road this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends

The Nationals have allowed 1.85 runs per game (294/159) in late innings this season — highest in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.03 (711.0 IP) at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

The Nationals have allowed 5.51 runs per game (430/78) at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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