• The Phillies are -135 favorites vs the Mets
• Mets vs Phillies Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
• Mets / Phillies TV Channel: ESPN

The New York Mets (+110) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-135) on July 16, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 pm in Philadelphia, PA.

This season, the Mets are 40-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 37-59 ATS.

Mets vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:

• Mets starting pitcher: Christian Scott 2-1, 3.17 ERA
• Phillies starting pitcher: Alan Rangel 0-2, 4.19 ERA

Mets vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mets vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 57.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Mets vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

• Carson Benge has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 away games (+23.80 Units / 264% ROI)
• Carson Benge has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.50 Units / 21% ROI)
• Francisco Alvarez has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+9.75 Units / 21% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Walks Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+7.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• Carson Benge has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.45 Units / 34% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Trea Turner has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+17.80 Units / 445% ROI)
• Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+13.35 Units / 29% ROI)
• Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+12.65 Units / 38% ROI)
• J.T. Realmuto has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.30 Units / 35% ROI)
• Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+11.20 Units / 41% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 50 away games (+19.15 Units / 32% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 50 away games (+18.35 Units / 32% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 50 away games (+7.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 16 games (+2.85 Units / 15% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.85 Units / 14% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+10.35 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.45 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.35 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+6.50 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.30 Units / 32% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 40-55 against the Run Line (-13.85 Units / -12.03% ROI).

• 40-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -32.35 Units / -25.99% ROI
• 45-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.05 Units / -3.78% ROI
• 44-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.85 Units / -5.51% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 37-59 against the Run Line (-28.05 Units / -24.48% ROI).

• 54-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
• 41-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.05 Units / -15% ROI
• 52-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.35 Units / 6.9% ROI

Phillies vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Phillies vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Phillies vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Mets are just 35-49 (.417) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.

The Mets are just 11-52 (.175) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.

The Mets are just 40-57 (.412) this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mets are just 28-7 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .865.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Phillies are 11-38 (.224) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .135.

The Phillies are just 5-18 (.217) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .372.

The Phillies are 10-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .787.

The Phillies are 5-40 (.111) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .053.

Mets Hitting Stats & Trends

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .637 (1,132 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OBP of just .235 (1,915 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OBP of just .302 (2,613 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have 24 extra-base hits out of 100 total hits (just 24%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends

Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .285 (1,916 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

The Phillies are batting just .220 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Phillies are just 16-37 (.302) against the run line (-41.5% ROI) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .502.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .303 (3,626 PA’s) this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.

Mets Pitching Stats & Trends

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 67% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB.

Mets pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 48 double plays in 679 opportunities (7%) this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Mets have won just 10% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — tied for highest in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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