• The Pirates are -155 favorites vs the Nationals
• Nationals vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
• Nationals / Pirates TV Channel: SNPT | NATV

The Washington Nationals (+130) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-155) on April 16, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35 pm in Pittsburgh, PA.

This season, the Nationals are 8-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 12-6 ATS.

Nationals vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:

• Nationals starting pitcher: Foster Griffin 2-0, 1.76 ERA
• Pirates starting pitcher: Braxton Ashcraft 1-1, 2.12 ERA

Nationals vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Nationals vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 59.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:

• CJ Abrams has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 away games (+19.60 Units / 280% ROI)
• Daylen Lile has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 away games (+18.70 Units / 51% ROI)
• Daylen Lile has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 20 away games (+15.65 Units / 66% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+12.40 Units / 63% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.10 Units / 61% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Walks Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+18.45 Units / 92% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+15.20 Units / 60% ROI)
• Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+13.60 Units / 42% ROI)
• Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.35 Units / 31% ROI)
• Oneil Cruz has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 20 games at home (+8.00 Units / 40% ROI)

Nationals Best Bets Today:

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 away games (+14.25 Units / 59% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 45 games (+10.40 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.45 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 17 away games (+8.70 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 24 away games (+7.30 Units / 30% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 50 games at home (+14.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 50 games at home (+13.25 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 50 games at home (+12.75 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+11.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games at home (+11.20 Units / 18% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 10-7 against the Run Line (+1.7 Units / 7.52% ROI).

• 8-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.9 Units / 15.93% ROI
• 12-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.45 Units / 27.46% ROI
• 6-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 12-6 against the Run Line (+5.45 Units / 22.38% ROI).

• 11-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 17.82% ROI
• 10-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.15 Units / 5.81% ROI
• 8-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.05 Units / -15.4% ROI

Pirates vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Pirates vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Pirates vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Nationals were just 64-79 (.444) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits in the 2025 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.

The Nationals are 7-2 (.778) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Nationals were just 11-43 (.200) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2025 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .362.

The Nationals are just 5-3 (.625) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .870.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Pirates are just 7-55 (.113) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.

The Pirates were just 5-65 (.071) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2025 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.

The Pirates were just 4-75 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2025 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .090.

The Pirates are just 14-91 (.133) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.

Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends

The Nationals are batting .301 against LHP this season — best in MLB.

Nationals hitters are slugging .321 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB.

Nationals hitters struck out in 25% of their PA’s against LHP in the 2025 season — 3rd highest in MLB.

Nationals hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends

Pirates hitters slugged just .333 on the road in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Pirates hitters slugged just .354 against RHP in the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .358 against RHP since the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Pirates hitters had an OPS of just .622 (3,034 PA’s) on the road in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 7.85 (55.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.40 (1583.2 IP) since the 2025 season — 2nd highest in MLB.

The Nationals have allowed 8.33 runs per game (50/6) at home this season — highest in MLB.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends

Pirates pitchers have walked 16% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB.

Pirates pitchers walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB.

Pirates pitchers won only 14% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Pirates pitchers have walked 13% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (13 games) — 2nd highest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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