• The Braves are -200 favorites vs the Phillies
• Phillies vs Braves Over / Under today: 6.5 Runs
• Phillies / Braves TV Channel: NBC | PEAC

The Philadelphia Phillies (+165) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-200) on September 29, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 2:00 pm in Atlanta, GA.

This season, the Phillies are 88-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 81-80 ATS.

Phillies vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:

• Phillies starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 14-5, 2.87 ERA
• Braves starting pitcher: Chris Sale 14-9, 2.16 ERA

Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 63.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

• Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 25 away games (+22.20 Units / 48% ROI)
• J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+15.75 Units / 78% ROI)
• J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+15.15 Units / 72% ROI)
• J.T. Realmuto has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.95 Units / 43% ROI)
• Jesús Luzardo has hit the Earned Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.85 Units / 53% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+16.65 Units / 39% ROI)
• Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+15.25 Units / 57% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.70 Units / 39% ROI)
• Ozzie Albies has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+13.55 Units / 52% ROI)
• Austin Riley has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+12.20 Units / 203% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games (+9.25 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 35 away games (+6.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+5.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 21 away games (+4.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 40 games (+3.70 Units / 6% ROI)

Braves Best Bets Today:

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 50 games (+22.00 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 45 games at home (+12.45 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+7.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+7.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+7.05 Units / 10% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 68-93 against the Run Line (-32.9 Units / -17.1% ROI).

• 88-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.85 Units / -3.24% ROI
• 76-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.6 Units / -5.38% ROI
• 78-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.25 Units / -2.95% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Braves are 81-80 against the Run Line (+8.4 Units / 4.45% ROI).

• 94-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.95 Units / 3.13% ROI
• 74-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.9 Units / -7.19% ROI
• 79-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -0.62% ROI

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Phillies are 15-57 (.208) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Phillies are 7-65 (.097) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB.

The Phillies are 45-36 (.556) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB.

The Phillies are 11-62 (.151) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Braves are 12-55 (.179) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB.

The Braves are 73-4 (.948) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB.

The Braves are 50-10 (.833) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Braves are 52-29 (.642) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends

Phillies hitters are slugging just .364 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Phillies are just 11-26 (.297) against the run line (-54.2% ROI) when underdogs this season — lowest in MLB.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .309 (4,164 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.

Phillies hitters have 135 extra-base hits out of 284 total hits (47%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB.

Braves Hitting Stats & Trends

Braves hitters have been successful in 100% of their sacrifice bunt attempts this season — best in MLB.

The Braves have an xwOBA of .417 this season — best in MLB.

Braves hitters have an OPS of .753 (1,906 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Braves hitters have an OBP of just .310 (6,054 PA’s) this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Phillies pitchers this season — tied for best in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% versus the bottom of the order this season — best in MLB.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.8 MPH this season (3,928 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB

Braves Pitching Stats & Trends

The Braves have won 42% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Braves pitchers have an ERA of 3.63 (700.0 IP) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB.

Braves pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 37% of their games this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

Braves pitchers have an ERA of 3.63 (1438.0 IP) this season — 5th best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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