• The Mets are -135 favorites vs the Phillies
• Phillies vs Mets Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Phillies / Mets TV Channel: FOX

The Philadelphia Phillies (+110) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-135) on September 17, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 pm in Flushing, Queens, NY.

This season, the Phillies are 84-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 68-82 ATS.

Phillies vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:

• Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 6-10, 4.71 ERA
• Mets starting pitcher: Nolan McLean 11-9, 3.26 ERA

Phillies vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Phillies vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 57.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

• Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 25 away games (+22.20 Units / 49% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+16.05 Units / 41% ROI)
• Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 25 away games (+14.60 Units / 58% ROI)
• Justin Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 away games (+13.75 Units / 30% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.60 Units / 41% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• A.J. Ewing has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games at home (+14.00 Units / 280% ROI)
• Nolan McLean has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.15 Units / 48% ROI)
• Bo Bichette has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+9.05 Units / 25% ROI)
• Francisco Alvarez has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.00 Units / 30% ROI)
• A.J. Ewing has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.70 Units / 39% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 away games (+8.65 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 50 games (+8.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 games (+6.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.75 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 24 away games (+4.45 Units / 15% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 40 games at home (+13.85 Units / 28% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+11.10 Units / 31% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+10.35 Units / 32% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 40 games (+7.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 40 games (+5.25 Units / 11% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 64-87 against the Run Line (-29.2 Units / -16.32% ROI).

• 84-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.65 Units / -2.03% ROI
• 70-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.15 Units / -6.66% ROI
• 74-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.55 Units / -1.53% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 68-82 against the Run Line (-19.2 Units / -10.04% ROI).

• 69-83 when betting on the Moneyline for -28.15 Units / -15.06% ROI
• 69-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -9 Units / -5.34% ROI
• 70-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -6 Units / -3.62% ROI

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Phillies are 7-59 (.106) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB.

The Phillies are 20-1 (.952) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB.

The Phillies are 15-52 (.224) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Phillies are 43-34 (.558) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Mets are just 53-35 (.602) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB.

The Mets are 19-1 (.950) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Mets are 47-7 (.870) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB.

The Mets are just 7-63 (.100) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends

Phillies hitters are slugging just .365 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Phillies are just 7-26 (-57.6% ROI) when underdogs this season — lowest in MLB.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of just .663 (2,903 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of just .667 (1,777 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Mets Hitting Stats & Trends

The Mets are batting just .228 against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OBP of just .298 (1,632 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters are slugging just .250 with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OBP of just .239 (3,028 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB.

Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (3,684 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Mets Pitching Stats & Trends

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 68% of their games at home this season — tied for highest in MLB.

The Mets have won just 27% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Mets pitchers have 256 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 3rd most in MLB.

Mets pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 79 double plays in 1,063 opportunities (7%) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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