• The Phillies are -200 favorites vs the Nationals
• Phillies vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
• Phillies / Nationals TV Channel: NSPA | NATV

The Philadelphia Phillies (-200) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+165) on September 16, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45 pm in Washington, D.C., DC.

This season, the Phillies are 83-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 85-65 ATS.

Phillies vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:

• Phillies starting pitcher: Zack Wheeler 12-5, 3.16 ERA
• Nationals starting pitcher: Jared Simpson 1-0, 6.76 ERA

Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Phillies vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 61.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

• Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 25 away games (+22.20 Units / 49% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+15.75 Units / 39% ROI)
• Justin Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 away games (+13.75 Units / 31% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.70 Units / 42% ROI)
• Justin Crawford has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+12.00 Units / 300% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Daylen Lile has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+14.20 Units / 57% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+11.85 Units / 37% ROI)
• Cade Cavalli has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.60 Units / 57% ROI)
• Jacob Young has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+9.85 Units / 45% ROI)
• Brady House has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.70 Units / 30% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 45 games (+9.50 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 23 away games (+7.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 16 away games (+4.90 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 30 games (+4.25 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 50 away games (+3.80 Units / 6% ROI)

Nationals Best Bets Today:

• The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 50 games at home (+14.00 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 45 games at home (+11.60 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 25 games at home (+10.40 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+9.15 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+7.50 Units / 14% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 63-87 against the Run Line (-30.2 Units / -16.99% ROI).

• 83-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.65 Units / -2.49% ROI
• 70-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.1 Units / -6.07% ROI
• 73-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.55 Units / -2.14% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 85-65 against the Run Line (+7.4 Units / 3.62% ROI).

• 71-81 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 0.36% ROI
• 80-64 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.25 Units / 6.13% ROI
• 64-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.65 Units / -14.14% ROI

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Phillies are 15-52 (.224) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB.

The Phillies are 47-6 (.887) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Phillies are 7-59 (.106) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB.

The Phillies are 20-1 (.952) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Nationals are just 35-26 (.574) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Nationals are just 2-61 (.032) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Nationals are just 56-19 (.747) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB.

The Nationals are just 1-70 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB.

Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends

Phillies hitters are slugging just .366 on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of 1.191 (1,044 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .296 (2,860 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .308 (3,881 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends

Nationals hitters have an OPS of .549 (3,053 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB.

The Nationals are batting .262 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Nationals hitters have an OPS of .776 (1,716 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Nationals hitters are slugging .288 with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (3,662 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Phillies pitchers this season — best in MLB.

Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends

The Nationals have allowed 1.88 runs per game (285/152) in late innings this season — highest in MLB.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.05 (702.0 IP) at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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