The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves will fight for a spot in the NLDS when they face off in Game 3 of their NL Wild Card series at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday at Truist Park in Atlanta on NBC.
Get my Phillies vs. Braves prediction based on the latest MLB odds:
Phillies vs. Braves Prediction for Game 3 NL Wild Card
- Lean over on total runs
I don’t have a favorite Phillies vs. Braves prediction based on the initial odds for Game 3 of the NL Wild Card. That said, I’d like the over if the total dropped from 7.5.
Given the total has dropped in each of the past two games, I think a flat seven is possible before first pitch. The first two games of the series have seen 15 total runs, with most of the damage coming in the late innings.
But the offense could arrive earlier in Game 3, as neither team is starting its best pitcher.
The Phillies are starting right-hander Aaron Nola, who faced the Braves twice in early September. He gave up three earned runs, but it’s fair to wonder whether the Braves will benefit from seeing him a third time in less than a month.
Speaking of which, the Braves will likely roll with a bullpen game. The problem is, they’ve leaned on their top relievers in consecutive days. Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee, and Didier Fuentes have all pitched in both games.
Even if they can go, having them pitch to similar hitters in the same series could hurt. Honestly, it probably played a part in Lee coughing up back-to-back home runs to Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper in Atlanta’s extra-innings loss on Wednesday.
As a result, I expect a bit more offense in the finale. If the total doesn’t drop to a flat seven, I’ll take a look at player props when those markets become available. I’m targeting Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm, who hit a home run in the 10th inning on an impressive swing off a 99.4-mile-per-hour fastball.
Prediction: Over 7
Phillies vs. Braves Odds: NL Wild Card, Game 3
- Phillies moneyline: -110
- Braves moneyline: -110
- Total: 7.5
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