• The Pirates are -130 favorites vs the Cardinals
• Pirates vs Cardinals Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
• Pirates / Cardinals TV Channel: CATV | SNPT | ESUN

The Pittsburgh Pirates (-130) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (+105) on May 21, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:15 pm in St. Louis, MO.

This season, the Pirates are 25-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 30-17 ATS.

Pirates vs Cardinals Starting Pitchers Today:

• Pirates starting pitcher: Braxton Ashcraft 2-2, 3.07 ERA
• Cardinals starting pitcher: Dustin May 3-4, 4.91 ERA

Pirates vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 53.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Pirates vs Cardinals and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

• Konnor Griffin has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+14.25 Units / 52% ROI)
• Konnor Griffin has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+13.30 Units / 67% ROI)
• Konnor Griffin has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.00 Units / 34% ROI)
• Spencer Horwitz has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 25 games (+9.05 Units / 36% ROI)
• Henry Davis has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.80 Units / 25% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Pedro Pages has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games at home (+12.00 Units / 150% ROI)
• Jordan Walker has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+11.10 Units / 44% ROI)
• Alec Burleson has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.95 Units / 24% ROI)
• Nolan Gorman has hit the Walks Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+9.65 Units / 96% ROI)
• Nolan Gorman has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 20 games at home (+9.00 Units / 45% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 35 away games (+12.00 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 40 away games (+11.00 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 45 away games (+8.20 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 35 away games (+8.05 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 45 games (+5.05 Units / 9% ROI)

Cardinals Best Bets Today:

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 40 games (+11.65 Units / 28% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.05 Units / 22% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 30 games (+7.85 Units / 25% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+7.70 Units / 44% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 30 games (+7.65 Units / 17% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 25-23 against the Run Line (+2.45 Units / 4.02% ROI).

• 25-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.15 Units / -6.54% ROI
• 26-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.5 Units / 2.75% ROI
• 22-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.35 Units / -11.9% ROI

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 30-17 against the Run Line (+5.35 Units / 7.44% ROI).

• 28-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.5 Units / 25.33% ROI
• 21-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.4 Units / -10.26% ROI
• 24-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.65 Units / 1.23% ROI

Cardinals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Cardinals vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Cardinals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals

The Pirates are just 0-18 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .055.

The Pirates are 23-3 (.885) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.

The Pirates are just 9-15 (.375) after a win this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.

The Pirates are just 2-21 (.087) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .207.

Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Cardinals are 3-17 (.150) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .055.

The Cardinals are 16-7 (.696) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season Today, they face the Pirates (seventh in runs scored).

The Cardinals are 149-10 (.937) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .903.

The Cardinals are 31-19 (.620) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .499.

Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends

The Pirates are batting .311 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 590 of their 1,940 plate appearances (30%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Pirates hitters have 29 extra-base hits out of 121 total hits (just 24%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Pirates hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 325 of their 889 plate appearances (37%) versus relief pitchers this season — highest in MLB.

Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends

Cardinals hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Cardinals are batting just .212 with two outs this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

The Cardinals are batting just .225 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB.

Cardinals hitters have 65 extra-base hits out of 223 total hits (just 29%) against starting pitchers this season — lowest in MLB.

Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends

Pirates pitchers have walked 11% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .213 against Pirates pitchers this season — best in MLB.

Pirates pitchers have allowed 43 home runs this season — tied for 4th fewest in MLB.

Pirates pitchers have allowed three-ball counts to 20% of batters they faced (368/1,883 PA’s) this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends

Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB.

Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB.

Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — lowest in MLB.

Cardinals pitchers have struck out just 17% of left-handed batters they faced this season — lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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