• The Pirates are -110 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
• Pirates vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 9 Runs
• Pirates / Diamondbacks TV Channel: DBTV | SNPT

The Pittsburgh Pirates (-110) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-110) on May 7, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 3:40 pm in Phoenix, AZ.

This season, the Pirates are 20-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 23-12 ATS.

Pirates vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:

• Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 3-1, 2.88 ERA
• Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zac Gallen 1-2, 4.55 ERA

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Pirates vs Diamondbacks and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Walks Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+14.25 Units / 71% ROI)
• Konnor Griffin has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.20 Units / 32% ROI)
• Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+9.05 Units / 42% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+8.90 Units / 39% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.85 Units / 46% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games at home (+20.60 Units / 294% ROI)
• Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.40 Units / 29% ROI)
• Alek Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.10 Units / 34% ROI)
• Ketel Marte has hit the Walks Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.90 Units / 30% ROI)
• Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.60 Units / 31% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 35 away games (+10.05 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.40 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 45 games (+7.15 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 23 away games (+5.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 35 away games (+3.20 Units / 8% ROI)

Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 24 games at home (+13.25 Units / 46% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 50 games at home (+12.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 50 games (+11.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+8.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 50 games (+8.50 Units / 15% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 19-17 against the Run Line (+1.15 Units / 2.41% ROI).

• 20-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.5 Units / -1.06% ROI
• 20-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.2 Units / 5.37% ROI
• 16-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.95 Units / -14.71% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 23-12 against the Run Line (+6.95 Units / 13.61% ROI).

• 17-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 0.65% ROI
• 20-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +6 Units / 15.58% ROI
• 13-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.8 Units / -22.8% ROI

Diamondbacks vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Diamondbacks vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Diamondbacks vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Pirates are just 1-8 (.111) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

The Pirates are just 0-13 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .054.

The Pirates are 18-3 (.857) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .725.

The Pirates are just 2-14 (.125) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .215.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Diamondbacks are 4-11 (.267) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .142.

The Diamondbacks are just 0-15 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .054.

The Diamondbacks are just 11-4 (.733) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.

The Diamondbacks are just 72-21 (.774) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .872.

Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends

The Pirates are batting just .205 on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .607 (653 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .325 on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

Pirates hitters have 22 extra-base hits out of 90 total hits (just 24%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends

Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .582 with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .291 (886 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Diamondbacks are batting .279 against LHP this season — tied for best in MLB.

8% of Diamondbacks’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (108/1,282 PA’s) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends

Pirates pitchers have walked 12% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB.

Opponents are hitting just .219 against Pirates pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Pirates pitchers have allowed 28 home runs this season — tied for fewest in MLB.

Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Diamondbacks pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 19 double plays in 259 opportunities (7%) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Diamondbacks pitchers have struck out just 18% of left-handed batters they faced this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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