- The Mets are -175 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Mets Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Pirates / Mets TV Channel: SNY | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+145) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-175) on March 28, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 pm in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Pirates are 0-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 1-0 ATS.
Pirates vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Pirates vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -150 | O 7.5 -110 | +145 |
| Mets | -1.5 +125 | U 7.5 -110 | -175 |
Pirates vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 55.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+10.50 Units / 175% ROI)
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.45 Units / 63% ROI)
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.60 Units / 49% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.45 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+17.40 Units / 290% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+14.50 Units / 97% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+12.10 Units / 39% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+11.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+11.15 Units / 35% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 98 of their last 161 games (+28.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 88 of their last 150 games (+27.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 77 of their last 124 games (+24.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 64 away games (+15.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 60 of their last 104 games (+11.80 Units / 10% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 58 games at home (+15.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 93 games (+9.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 81 games at home (+8.10 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 43 of their last 75 games at home (+5.94 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 45 of their last 79 games at home (+2.70 Units / 2% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 0-1 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -100% ROI).
- 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 1-0 against the Run Line (+1.35 Units / 135% ROI).
- 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 83.33% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Mets vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Marcell Ozuna (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Luis Robert (NYM) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Marcus Semien (NYM) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
Mets vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bo Bichette (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Mets vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Polanco (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bo Bichette (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Marcus Semien (NYM) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Luis Robert (NYM) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Mets vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peterson (NYM) | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +125 |
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Pirates were just 27-54 (.333) on the road in the 2025 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .457.
The Pirates were just 4-75 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2025 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .090.
The Pirates are just 13-73 (.151) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Pirates are just 14-88 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Mets were 8-2 (.800) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets were just 0-70 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2025 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .043.
The Mets are 21-10 (.677) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are 24-14 (.632) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters slugged just .333 on the road in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB.
The Pirates won only 33% of their road games in the 2025 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.
Pirates hitters slugged just .354 against RHP in the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.
Pirates hitters had an OPS of just .596 (1,843 PA’s) in innings 7-9 in the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of 48% against RHP in the 2025 season — best in MLB.
Mets hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of 47% in the 2025 season — tied for best in MLB.
Mets hitters had a groundball batting average of just .214 with runners on base in the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.
Mets hitters had an OPS of .777 (4,398 PA’s) against RHP in the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB.
Pirates pitchers won only 14% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB.
The Pirates won just 26% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2025 season — 5th lowest in MLB.
In games when their opponents scored three or more runs in an inning, the Pirates won just 13% of the time in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 47% against Mets pitchers in the 2025 season — highest in MLB.
The longest HR allowed by the Mets pitchers in the 2025 season traveled 439.9 feet — — shortest in MLB
Mets pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB.
Mets pitchers have walked 9% of batters since the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB.
More MLB Reading:
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