- The Guardians are -135 favorites vs the Rays
- Rays vs Guardians Over / Under today: 6.5 Runs
- Rays / Guardians TV Channel: TBS | tru | HBOM
The Tampa Bay Rays (+115) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-135) on October 15, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:00 pm in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Rays are 102-65 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 81-87 ATS.
Rays vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Griffin Jax 8-10, 3.46 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams 15-8, 3.64 ERA
Rays vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 -210 | O 6.5 +100 | +115 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +170 | U 6.5 -120 | -135 |
Rays vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 55.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Richie Palacios has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+22.00 Units / 220% ROI)
- Jonny DeLuca has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+17.15 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jonny DeLuca has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 25 away games (+16.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jonny DeLuca has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+13.25 Units / 43% ROI)
- Victor Mesa Jr. has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+9.40 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Travis Bazzana has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+14.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- Patrick Bailey has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+14.00 Units / 280% ROI)
- Travis Bazzana has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+13.10 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jo Adell has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Walks Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+10.20 Units / 51% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 24 games (+12.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 35 away games (+11.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 40 games (+11.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 50 away games (+8.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.70 Units / 59% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 40 games (+8.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+8.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 25 games (+4.05 Units / 14% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 87-77 against the Run Line (+18.75 Units / 9.26% ROI).
- 102-65 when betting on the Moneyline for +24.3 Units / 11.19% ROI
- 76-84 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.2 Units / -8.84% ROI
- 84-76 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.05 Units / 0.03% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 81-87 against the Run Line (-10.35 Units / -4.8% ROI).
- 89-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.9 Units / -0.42% ROI
- 81-86 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.85 Units / -6.97% ROI
- 86-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.95 Units / -2.1% ROI
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Rays were 39-6 (.867) when they hit 2 or more home runs in the 2026 season — 2nd best in MLB.
The Rays were 13-51 (.203) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2026 season — 3rd best in MLB.
The Rays were 38-52 (.422) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2026 season — 2nd best in MLB.
The Rays were 76-6 (.927) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2026 season — 3rd best in MLB.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Guardians were 20-21 (.488) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2026 season — 3rd best in MLB.
The Guardians were 62-5 (.925) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2026 season — 5th best in MLB.
The Guardians were 82-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters slugged .281 on pitches out of the zone in the 2026 season — best in MLB.
The Rays batted .266 with two outs in the 2026 season — best in MLB.
The Rays batted .203 on pitches out of the zone in the 2026 season — best in MLB.
Rays hitters struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP in the 2026 season — best in MLB.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters had an OPS of just .652 (1,909 PA’s) in innings 7-9 in the 2026 season — 2nd lowest in MLB.
Guardians hitters had an OPS of just .675 (1,948 PA’s) against LHP in the 2026 season — 4th lowest in MLB.
The Guardians batted just .221 with two outs in the 2026 season — 3rd lowest in MLB.
The Guardians batted just .230 against LHP in the 2026 season — 3rd lowest in MLB.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers walked 7% of batters in the 2026 season — best in MLB.
Rays pitchers threw at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 68% of opposing batters in the 2026 season — 2nd highest in MLB.
Rays pitchers walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2026 season — best in MLB.
Rays pitchers had a first-pitch strike rate of 65% in the 2026 season — 2nd highest in MLB.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers had a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations in the 2026 season — best in MLB.
Guardians pitchers had a strikeout rate of 28% in late innings in the 2026 season — best in MLB.
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Guardians pitchers in the 2026 season — tied for 4th best in MLB.
Guardians pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position in the 2026 season — best in MLB.
More MLB Reading:
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