- The Rays are -115 favorites vs the Guardians
- Rays vs Guardians Over / Under today: 6.5 Runs
- Rays / Guardians TV Channel: TBS | tru | HBOM
The Tampa Bay Rays (-115) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-105) on October 16, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 8:00 pm in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Rays are 102-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 81-88 ATS.
Rays vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Nick Martinez 15-6, 3.15 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Undecided 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Rays vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +165 | O 6.5 -110 | -115 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -200 | U 6.5 -110 | -105 |
Rays vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s MLB game with 54.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- No trends found
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Travis Bazzana has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+14.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- Travis Bazzana has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- Patrick Bailey has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+13.00 Units / 217% ROI)
- Travis Bazzana has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+12.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Walks Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+10.20 Units / 51% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 35 away games (+11.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games (+11.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 40 games (+11.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 50 away games (+10.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+7.90 Units / 23% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 45 games (+10.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games (+7.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+5.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+5.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 88-77 against the Run Line (+19.75 Units / 9.66% ROI).
- 102-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +23.3 Units / 10.68% ROI
- 76-85 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.35 Units / -9.4% ROI
- 85-76 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.05 Units / 0.57% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 81-88 against the Run Line (-11.35 Units / -5.24% ROI).
- 90-80 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.1 Units / 0.05% ROI
- 81-87 when betting on the total runs Over for -14 Units / -7.55% ROI
- 87-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.95 Units / -1.56% ROI
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Rays were 39-6 (.867) when they hit 2 or more home runs in the 2026 season — 2nd best in MLB.
The Rays were 13-51 (.203) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2026 season — 3rd best in MLB.
The Rays were 38-52 (.422) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2026 season — 2nd best in MLB.
The Rays were 39-13 (.750) when they scored in the first inning in the 2026 season — 4th best in MLB.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Guardians were 20-21 (.488) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2026 season — 3rd best in MLB.
The Guardians were 62-5 (.925) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2026 season — 5th best in MLB.
The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Guardians are 128-10 (.928) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2025 season — tied for best in MLB.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters slugged .281 on pitches out of the zone in the 2026 season — best in MLB.
The Rays batted .203 on pitches out of the zone in the 2026 season — best in MLB.
Rays hitters missed on just 21% of swings in the 2026 season — best in MLB.
The Rays batted .266 with two outs in the 2026 season — best in MLB.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters slugged just .361 against LHP in the 2026 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.
The Guardians batted just .230 against LHP in the 2026 season — 3rd lowest in MLB.
Guardians hitters had an OPS of just .675 (1,948 PA’s) against LHP in the 2026 season — 4th lowest in MLB.
The Guardians batted just .221 with two outs in the 2026 season — 3rd lowest in MLB.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers walked 7% of batters in the 2026 season — best in MLB.
Rays pitchers walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2026 season — best in MLB.
Rays pitchers allowed three-ball counts to 17% of batters they faced (1,002/5,939 PA’s) in the 2026 season — lowest in MLB.
Rays pitchers had a first-pitch strike rate of 65% in the 2026 season — 2nd highest in MLB.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position in the 2026 season — best in MLB.
Guardians pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25% in the 2026 season — 4th best in MLB.
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Guardians pitchers in the 2026 season — tied for 4th best in MLB.
Guardians pitchers had a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations in the 2026 season — best in MLB.
More MLB Reading:
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