• The Rays are -135 favorites vs the Guardians
• Rays vs Guardians Over / Under today: 6.5 Runs
• Rays / Guardians TV Channel: TBS | tru | HBOM

The Tampa Bay Rays (-135) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+115) on October 18, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 5:08 pm in Cleveland, OH.

This season, the Rays are 103-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 81-89 ATS.

Rays vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:

• Rays starting pitcher: Drew Rasmussen 17-5, 2.57 ERA
• Guardians starting pitcher: Parker Messick 12-11, 2.61 ERA

Rays vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Rays vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 55.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jonny DeLuca has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+12.00 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jonny DeLuca has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.75 Units / 36% ROI)
• Victor Mesa Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+10.40 Units / 37% ROI)
• Victor Mesa Jr. has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+10.30 Units / 69% ROI)
• Drew Rasmussen has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.35 Units / 38% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Petey Halpin has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games at home (+19.00 Units / 380% ROI)
• Travis Bazzana has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.10 Units / 36% ROI)
• Travis Bazzana has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+12.50 Units / 36% ROI)
• Nathaniel Lowe has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+11.55 Units / 29% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+10.60 Units / 22% ROI)

Rays Best Bets Today:

• The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 away games (+13.50 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 40 games (+11.70 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 30 games (+11.00 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 40 games (+9.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 50 away games (+6.95 Units / 12% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games (+8.60 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 23 games (+4.30 Units / 15% ROI)

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Rays are 89-77 against the Run Line (+21.35 Units / 10.39% ROI).

• 103-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +24.3 Units / 11.08% ROI
• 77-85 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.35 Units / -8.81% ROI
• 85-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.05 Units / -0.03% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 81-89 against the Run Line (-13.2 Units / -6.05% ROI).

• 90-81 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -0.46% ROI
• 82-87 when betting on the total runs Over for -13 Units / -6.96% ROI
• 87-82 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.05 Units / -2.13% ROI

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Rays were 39-6 (.867) when they hit 2 or more home runs in the 2026 season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Rays were 38-52 (.422) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2026 season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Rays were 13-51 (.203) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2026 season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Rays were 83-20 (.806) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in the 2026 season — best in MLB.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Guardians were 20-21 (.488) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2026 season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Guardians were 62-5 (.925) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2026 season — 5th best in MLB.

The Guardians were 33-4 (.868) when they had 10 or more hits in the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .743.

The Guardians were just 3-61 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.

Rays Hitting Stats & Trends

Rays hitters slugged .281 on pitches out of the zone in the 2026 season — best in MLB.

The Rays batted .203 on pitches out of the zone in the 2026 season — best in MLB.

Rays hitters struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP in the 2026 season — best in MLB.

Rays hitters had 149 extra-base hits out of 587 total hits (just 25%) versus relief pitchers in the 2026 season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends

The Guardians batted just .230 against LHP in the 2026 season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters slugged just .361 against LHP in the 2026 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Guardians batted just .221 with two outs in the 2026 season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters drew walks in 10% of their PA’s against LHP in the 2026 season — tied for 5th best in MLB.

Rays Pitching Stats & Trends

Rays pitchers walked 7% of batters in the 2026 season — best in MLB.

Rays pitchers walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2026 season — best in MLB.

Rays pitchers had a first-pitch strike rate of 65% in the 2026 season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Rays pitchers threw at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 68% of opposing batters in the 2026 season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends

Guardians pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25% in the 2026 season — 4th best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers had a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations in the 2026 season — best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in the 2026 season — 4th best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position in the 2026 season — best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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