Rays vs. Guardians Prediction: ALCS Game 3 Odds & Preview

With the series tied 1-1, the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians will meet for Game 3 of the ALCS at 1 p.m. ET on Thursday at Progressive Field in Cleveland on TBS.

Get my Rays vs. Guardians prediction based on the latest MLB odds:

Rays vs. Guardians Prediction for Game 3 ALCS

• Gavin Williams over 3.5 hits allowed

I like the over on the hits allowed prop for Cleveland right-hander Gavin Williams, especially as long as it’s trading at 3.5.

With the start time moved up, I wouldn’t be surprised if that changes game plans. Starters might have a longer leash with the earlier start, hoping to save the bullpen in a best-of-seven series. This is the first of three straight days the Rays and Guardians play.

As a result, I expect Williams to last a bit longer than expected. His outs prop at 15.5 is tempting, but it’s in line with my projection. Instead, I’d rather take the over on his hits allowed prop at just 3.5, since I expect him to give up more than four hits.

The Rays are a high-contact team, ranking second in the majors with a .258 batting average and hits. They also have the best strikeout rate (18.8%).

Williams tends to be more of a strikeout guy, but his pitch count could stay low if he can’t get the Rays to chase. He’s struck out 23 batters in his last two postseason starts, but BetMGM has set his total today at 6.5.

I like Williams’ chances of allowing at least four hits in a pivotal Game 3 of the ALCS.

Prediction: Gavin Williams over 3.5 hits allowed

Rays vs. Guardians Odds: ALCS, Game 3

• Rays moneyline: +105
• Guardians moneyline: -125
• Total: 6.5