The Tampa Bay Rays have a win total of 77.5 entering the 2026 season, per the latest MLB win totals market at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
Rays Over/Under Wins 2026
- Over 77.5 wins: +100
- Under 77.5 wins: -120
Rays Win Total Prediction 2026
- Over 77.5 wins (Pick made Feb. 20)
When the Rays have an MLB betting win total this low, I have no choice but to back the over.
According to Sports Odds History, the Rays haven’t had an over/under below 80 in a full season since 2017, when they won 90 games to soar over their preseason total of 74. They might not have that level of upside in 2026, though they have made a habit of exceeding expectations by clearing their win total in six of the past nine years.
Tampa Bay has leaned further into rebuild mode while the rest of the division is in an arms race for the throne. But this is still a team that possesses plenty of talent and a leadership group that knows how to maximize its edges.
Junior Caminero is coming off a breakthrough campaign in 2025, generating a bWAR of 4.4 with 45 home runs and 110 RBI in 154 games. His power should translate to a big-league ballpark, as the Rays return to Tropicana Field after a year in George M. Steinbrenner Field.
On that note, the Rays won’t have to deal with a quirky schedule like they did last year, as they had to spend much of the late-summer months on the road due to the heat. Tampa Bay, which was second in the AL East on June 30, won 30 games over the final three months to finish 77-85.
A return home could help the Rays’ pitchers, too. According to Baseball Savant, George M. Steibrenner Field had the seventh-highest home run Park Factor last year. Tropicana Field, meanwhile, ranked 27th in that metric in 2024.
Put it all together, and I think the Rays are flying under the radar heading into the 2026 season. I’ll happily back this franchise when that’s the case.
Rays Win Total History
(Data from Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 80.5 | 77 | Under |
| 2024 | 85.5 | 80 | Under |
| 2023 | 88.5 | 99 | Over |
| 2022 | 89.5 | 86 | Under |
| 2021 | 86.5 | 100 | Over |
| 2020 | 33.5 | 40 | Over |
| 2019 | 84.5 | 96 | Over |
| 2018 | 74 | 90 | Over |
| 2017 | 78.5 | 80 | Over |
| 2016 | 82.5 | 68 | Under |
| 2015 | 79.5 | 80 | Over |
| 2014 | 88 | 77 | Under |
| 2013 | 86 | 91 | Over |
| 2012 | 86.5 | 90 | Over |
| 2011 | 84.5 | 91 | Over |
| 2010 | 89 | 96 | Over |
| 2009 | 88.5 | 84 | Under |
| 2008 | 75 | 97 | Over |
| 2007 | 67 | 66 | Under |
| 2006 | 67.5 | 61 | Under |
| 2005 | 70 | 67 | Under |
| 2004 | 69.5 | 70 | Over |
| 2003 | 65.5 | 63 | Under |
| 2002 | 65.5 | 55 | Under |
| 2001 | 70.5 | 62 | Under |
| 2000 | 78.5 | 69 | Under |
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