• The Guardians are -185 favorites vs the Reds
• Reds vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
• Reds / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | RDTV

The Cincinnati Reds (+154) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-185) on May 16, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 pm in Cleveland, OH.

This season, the Reds are 24-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 23-23 ATS.

Reds vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:

• Reds starting pitcher: Chris Paddack 0-5, 7.40 ERA
• Guardians starting pitcher: Joey Cantillo 3-1, 2.98 ERA

Reds vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Reds vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 56.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Reds vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:

• Matt McLain has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+20.60 Units / 229% ROI)
• Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+16.25 Units / 33% ROI)
• Spencer Steer has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 25 away games (+15.55 Units / 42% ROI)
• Sal Stewart has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.50 Units / 42% ROI)
• Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 away games (+14.35 Units / 36% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Angel Martinez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+16.10 Units / 161% ROI)
• Daniel Schneemann has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.80 Units / 35% ROI)
• Patrick Bailey has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.35 Units / 47% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.55 Units / 22% ROI)
• Daniel Schneemann has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.00 Units / 27% ROI)

Reds Best Bets Today:

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 35 games (+13.75 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 45 games (+6.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.10 Units / 60% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 46% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 away games (+2.80 Units / 13% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 45 games at home (+10.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 40 games (+7.70 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+7.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games at home (+7.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 40 games (+6.35 Units / 13% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Reds are 27-17 against the Run Line (+6 Units / 9.2% ROI).

• 24-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 3.84% ROI
• 28-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.2 Units / 20.52% ROI
• 16-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.8 Units / -30.02% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 23-23 against the Run Line (+0.6 Units / 1.05% ROI).

• 24-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.5 Units / 2.73% ROI
• 23-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.1 Units / -4.16% ROI
• 23-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.5 Units / -4.91% ROI

Guardians vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Reds are 3-18 (.143) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .051.

The Reds are 4-14 (.222) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .134.

The Reds are just 12-48 (.200) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2025 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.

The Reds are just 11-67 (.141) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2025 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Guardians are 14-7 (.667) after a loss this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .479.

The Guardians are just 0-20 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.

The Guardians are 18-1 (.947) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .866.

The Guardians are 84-6 (.933) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2025 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .873.

Reds Hitting Stats & Trends

The Reds are batting just .191 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Reds are batting just .204 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB.

The Reds are batting just .226 this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Reds are batting just .122 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends

Guardians hitters are averaging 4.10 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB.

8% of Guardians’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (142/1,732 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters have a groundball batting average of just .198 this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .350 against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Reds Pitching Stats & Trends

Reds pitchers have walked 12% of batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Reds pitchers have a strike rate of just 61% this season — lowest in MLB.

Reds pitchers have an ERA of 6.67 (86.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Reds pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Guardians pitchers this season — tied for best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 4th best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 2.89 (209.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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