• The Guardians are -145 favorites vs the Twins
• Twins vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
• Twins / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | TWTV

The Minnesota Twins (+120) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-145) on July 23, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 pm in Cleveland, OH.

This season, the Twins are 50-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 50-52 ATS.

Twins vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:

• Twins starting pitcher: Taj Bradley 9-4, 3.85 ERA
• Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams 10-5, 4.00 ERA

Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Twins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 55.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Twins vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 25 away games (+17.00 Units / 36% ROI)
• Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+15.80 Units / 54% ROI)
• Josh Bell has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.50 Units / 45% ROI)
• Trevor Larnach has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+11.20 Units / 112% ROI)
• Luke Keaschall has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.15 Units / 42% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Chase DeLauter has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 25 games (+17.50 Units / 33% ROI)
• Chase DeLauter has hit the Walks Under in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+15.95 Units / 31% ROI)
• Chase DeLauter has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+14.45 Units / 49% ROI)
• Brayan Rocchio has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.30 Units / 56% ROI)
• Brayan Rocchio has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+11.50 Units / 164% ROI)

Twins Best Bets Today:

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 50 away games (+16.45 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 35 away games (+12.55 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 50 away games (+9.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 away games (+6.10 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+4.75 Units / 13% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.35 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.00 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games at home (+4.85 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games (+4.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.55 Units / 30% ROI)

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Twins are 55-48 against the Run Line (-5.9 Units / -4.04% ROI).

• 50-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.85 Units / -0.75% ROI
• 57-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.65 Units / 11.13% ROI
• 40-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.75 Units / -20.13% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 50-52 against the Run Line (-4.55 Units / -3.41% ROI).

• 54-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.85 Units / 2.34% ROI
• 49-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.9 Units / -8.8% ROI
• 54-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.45 Units / -0.39% ROI

Guardians vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Twins are just 0-43 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .096.

The Twins are just 0-46 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.

The Twins are just 12-19 (.387) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams this season Today, they face the Guardians (eighth runs allowed).

The Twins are just 4-40 (.091) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .134.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Guardians are 21-16 (.568) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season Today, they face Twins (26th in runs allowed).

The Guardians are 11-1 (.917) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .787.

The Guardians are 18-4 (.818) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .697.

The Guardians are 39-3 (.929) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .866.

Twins Hitting Stats & Trends

The Twins are batting just .287 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Twins hitters are slugging just .358 against LHP this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB.

Twins hitters have been successful in just 62% of their sacrifice bunt attempts this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Twins hitters have a 51% QAB rate with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB.

Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends

The Guardians are batting just .197 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

The Guardians are batting just .218 on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

The Guardians are batting just .225 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Guardians are batting just .225 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Twins Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .297 against Twins pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB.

Twins pitchers have an ERA of 5.34 (444.2 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Twins pitchers have walked 10% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .270 against Twins pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Guardians pitchers this season — tied for 4th best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% in late innings this season — best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 4% of innings played this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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