• The Guardians are -150 favorites vs the Twins
• Twins vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
• Twins / Guardians TV Channel: ATV

The Minnesota Twins (+125) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-150) on May 8, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 pm in Cleveland, OH.

This season, the Twins are 16-22 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 20-19 ATS.

Twins vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:

• Twins starting pitcher: Connor Prielipp 1-0, 3.86 ERA
• Guardians starting pitcher: Parker Messick 3-1, 2.44 ERA

Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Twins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s MLB game with 57.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Twins vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Byron Buxton has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 10 games (+17.35 Units / 174% ROI)
• Austin Martin has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+11.10 Units / 55% ROI)
• Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.75 Units / 37% ROI)
• Victor Caratini has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 50% ROI)
• Royce Lewis has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.85 Units / 42% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Daniel Schneemann has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.35 Units / 43% ROI)
• David Fry has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+13.60 Units / 227% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.50 Units / 45% ROI)
• Daniel Schneemann has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.50 Units / 34% ROI)
• Bo Naylor has hit the Walks Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.85 Units / 33% ROI)

Twins Best Bets Today:

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games (+10.35 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 away games (+8.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.00 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 45 games (+6.65 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 45 games (+4.45 Units / 8% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+8.80 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.75 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 35 games at home (+8.35 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+7.30 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+6.40 Units / 14% ROI)

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Twins are 18-20 against the Run Line (-9.65 Units / -17.58% ROI).

• 16-22 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.75 Units / -11.79% ROI
• 22-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.6 Units / 18.14% ROI
• 13-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.2 Units / -26.86% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 20-19 against the Run Line (+0.25 Units / 0.5% ROI).

• 20-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 3.81% ROI
• 19-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.85 Units / -6.63% ROI
• 20-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.9 Units / -2.09% ROI

Guardians vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Twins are just 7-11 (.389) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season Today, they face the Guardians (23rd in runs scored).

The Twins are just 6-12 (.333) on the road this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .467.

The Twins are just 2-16 (.111) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .215.

The Twins are just 1-9 (.100) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .302.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Guardians are just 6-13 (.316) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.

The Guardians are 8-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .756.

The Guardians are just 0-18 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.

The Guardians are 41-4 (.891) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .745.

Twins Hitting Stats & Trends

Twins hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — lowest in MLB.

Twins hitters have put just 30% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Twins hitters have a 55% QAB rate with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB.

The Twins are batting just .201 with two outs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends

Guardians hitters have put just 29% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters have a groundball batting average of just .192 this season — lowest in MLB.

8% of Guardians’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (119/1,458 PA’s) this season — tied for lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters have struck out in 32% of their PA’s in righty-righty matchups this season — highest in MLB.

Twins Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Twins pitchers this season — lowest in MLB.

Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in late innings this season — lowest in MLB.

The Twins have allowed 5.13 runs per game (195/38) this season — 5th highest in MLB.

Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 4th best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Guardians pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 2.75 (144.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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