• The Guardians are -145 favorites vs the White Sox
• White Sox vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
• White Sox / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | CHSN

The Chicago White Sox (+118) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-145) on July 4, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 pm in Cleveland, OH.

This season, the White Sox are 45-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 42-46 ATS.

White Sox vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:

• White Sox starting pitcher: Sean Burke 5-4, 3.69 ERA
• Guardians starting pitcher: Parker Messick 7-5, 2.88 ERA

White Sox vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

White Sox vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 57.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on White Sox vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best White Sox Player Prop Bets Today:

• Sam Antonacci has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+21.10 Units / 264% ROI)
• Chase Meidroth has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 away games (+9.45 Units / 38% ROI)
• Braden Montgomery has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 48% ROI)
• Colson Montgomery has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+8.80 Units / 19% ROI)
• Luisangel Acuna has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+8.65 Units / 35% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Chase DeLauter has hit the Walks Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.60 Units / 25% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+9.35 Units / 32% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+8.95 Units / 28% ROI)
• Chase DeLauter has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+8.65 Units / 26% ROI)
• Chase DeLauter has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.55 Units / 48% ROI)

White Sox Best Bets Today:

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 50 games (+14.60 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 35 away games (+10.40 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games (+10.20 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 50 games (+8.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.55 Units / 35% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.20 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 40 games (+3.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 50 games (+3.95 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.85 Units / 32% ROI)

White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the White Sox are 49-36 against the Run Line (+1.05 Units / 0.84% ROI).

• 45-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.7 Units / 10.56% ROI
• 50-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.65 Units / 12.24% ROI
• 35-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.45 Units / -21.25% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 42-46 against the Run Line (-6.9 Units / -5.99% ROI).

• 47-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.15 Units / 3.94% ROI
• 43-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.2 Units / -7.4% ROI
• 46-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.75 Units / -1.77% ROI

Guardians vs White Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs White Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs White Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The White Sox are 8-3 (.727) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The White Sox are just 3-20 (.130) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

The White Sox are 7-32 (.179) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .139.

The White Sox are 23-18 (.561) after a loss this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .484.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox

The Guardians are 15-2 (.882) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Guardians are 33-3 (.917) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.

The Guardians are 16-10 (.615) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2025 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Guardians are 49-8 (.845) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .746.

White Sox Hitting Stats & Trends

White Sox hitters have 45 extra-base hits out of 93 total hits (48%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB.

The White Sox have a winning percentage of just 38% on the road this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB.

White Sox hitters have struck out in 24% of their PA’s this season — 5th highest in MLB.

White Sox hitters have struck out in 25% of their PA’s against LHP this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB.

Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends

The Guardians are batting just .218 on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters have an OBP of just .274 (378 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

The Guardians are batting just .200 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .345 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

White Sox Pitching Stats & Trends

White Sox pitchers have walked 12% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB.

White Sox pitchers have walked 10% of batters this season — 4th highest in MLB.

The White Sox have won 56% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against White Sox pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 4% of innings played this season — tied for lowest in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 4th best in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Guardians pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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